Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
335 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT..WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY OVER ND.
NOT MUCH HAS GOTTEN UNDERWAY AS OF YET...BUT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER W ND AND NW SD. LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES OVER CENTRAL SD BY MIDNIGHT...SHIFTING EASTWARD
TOWARD MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH 50 POPS FOR THE NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL CONTINUE WITH FLOOD WATCH FOR
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL IN FAR NORTH. A QUICK DUMPING OF 1.5 TO 2
INCHES IN SOME AREAS STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE. SEVERE WX WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL...WITH THE THREAT BEING MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AS
THE SYSTEM REACHES THE EAST. AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING TS POSSIBLE IN
THE EAST...COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO COOL ON MONDAY...BUT COOLER TEMPS AND DRIER AIR WILL
BE IN PLACE BY TUESDAY AS NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES. TOOK
OUT POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE SW FOR COLLABORATION REASONS. GFS
PROGGING CONVECTION ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS IN SW SD AND INTO NEB
WHILE THE 12Z ETA WAS MUCH FURTHER S WITH THIS PRECIP. WEDNESDAY
CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE
AREA...AND TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY. GENERALLY...FOR TUE-WED...
NICE WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE WITH FAIR SKIES AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH
PRESSURE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SURFACE HIGH OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
WEST DOMINATING PATTERN AT BEGINNING OF EXTENDED PERIOD. SURFACE
WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT...
SATURDAY. REASONABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF SYSTEM ON SOUTHERLY
FLOW. LIFT NOT REAL STRONG BUT WILL KEEP PRECIP GOING FOR NOW...BUT
WILL NOT ADD ANY FURTHER OUT ATTM. WAA THROUGH END OF WEEK WITH
RIDGE IN PLACE. CURRENT FORECAST TREND LOOKS GOOD SO MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES.

&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH 05Z MON-15Z MON FOR PARTS OF NERN SODAK.
MN...FLOOD WATCH 05Z SAT-15Z MON FOR BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES.
&&

KNUTSVIG/MARSHALL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
547 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-121047-
BIG STONE-BROWN-BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-CORSON-DAY-DEUEL-
DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-
MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-TRAVERSE-
WALWORTH-
547 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS BIG STONE
AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING AFTER 7 PM...BEFORE EVOLVING INTO HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS
OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AGGRAVATING ALREADY SOGGY SOIL
CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AGAIN DEVELOP ON MONDAY. ONLY...THIS
TIME THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
SISSETON TO REDFIELD...AFTER 3 PM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 7 PM CDT...ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM EAGLE BUTTE TO SELBY TO EUREKA.

DORN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
815 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 SE HAYES              44.29N 100.91W
07/11/2004  60 MPH           STANLEY            SD   PUBLIC

&&

JE