Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
320 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
MAIN FOCUS FOR SHORT TERM FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND TIMING PCPN
TODAY...THEN DEALING WITH PCPN CHCS FOR FAR SWRN CWA MID WEEK.

LOLVL JET ACROSS CENTRAL SODAK HAS FIRED OFF AREA OF ELEVATED TSRA
FROM KABR AND AREAS WEST. NOTHING IS REALLY ORGANIZED WITH
CONVECTION...AND ALTHO SOME DECENT RAINERS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
AREA...MOVEMENT IS SUCH THAT FLOODING RAINS NOT VERY LIKELY. WILL
CANCEL FLOOD WATCH WITH ZONE ISSUANCE.

FOR LATER TODAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY PASSES EAST THROUGH CWA...WITH
MODELS NOW PROGGING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PASSAGE THAN PREVIOUSLY SEEN.
WITH SCATTERED BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...AND BETTER
RESOLUTION OF SECOND 5H WAVE PASSING THROUGH NERN CWA BY 00Z
TUESDAY...EXPECT SCT TSRA TO AGAIN DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTN...BASICALLY ALONG THE I-29 CORRIDOR AND EAST.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM...THINGS QUIET DOWN SOMEWHAT.
WITH CLOSED 5H VORTEX FLATTENING 5H RIDGE OVER CWA TODAY...RIDGE
REBOUNDS BACK TO THE WEST OF CWA...WITH CWA IN NW FLOW ALOFT. COLD
FRONT SAGS THROUGH CWA BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH CANADIAN HIGH NOSING
INTO NERN CWA. ONE PROBLEM AREA IS WITH WESTERN EDGE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH...BECOMING DRAPED
ACROSS SWRN SODAK BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH 7H AND 85H
THETA-E FORCING TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHC TSRA TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
FAR SW CWA. OTW LOOKS TO BE DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXTENDED STARTS OFF WITH CONTINUATION OF 5H RIDGE POSITIONED WEST OF
CWA WITH DRY NOW FLOW ALOFT. PROBLEM STILL LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AS GFS CONTS TO SHOW 7H TROF MOVING THROUGH ERN CWA
00Z SAT-12Z SATURDAY. WEAK 5H WAVE DROPS QUICKLY DOWN BACKSIDE OF 5H
RIDGE...WITH 85H FRONT DRAPED E-W ACROSS CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THINK
THAT MOST OF PCPN WILL BE ACROSS ERN CWA...SO HAVE REMOVED WESTERN
SECTIONS FROM PCPN MENTION. NOT SURE THAT PCPN WILL ALSO LAST AS
LONG AS WE CURRENTLY ARE FCSTING...BUT LEFT ALONE FOR CONTINUITY
SAKE. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE DRY.

&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

HINTZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
542 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

MNZ039-046-SDZ006>008-011-018>023-131039-
BIG STONE-BROWN-CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-SPINK-TRAVERSE-
542 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS BIG STONE
AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER UNSTABLE AIR ALREADY IN
PLACE...RESULTING IN THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-29 CORRIDOR AND AREAS EAST.

SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051-131039-
BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-
LYMAN-MCPHERSON-POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH-
542 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS BIG STONE
AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
823 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 AM     HAIL             1 N ONAKA               45.21N 99.46W
07/12/2004  1.00 INCH        FAULK              SD   CO-OP OBSERVER

0815 AM     HAIL             ONAKA                   45.19N 99.46W
07/12/2004  2.50 INCH        FAULK              SD   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

TK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
944 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 AM     HAIL             2 N CRESBARD            45.20N 98.95W
07/12/2004  0.88 INCH        FAULK              SD   PUBLIC

0915 AM     HAIL             2 NW CHELSEA            45.19N 98.77W
07/12/2004  1.75 INCH        FAULK              SD   PUBLIC

0823 AM     HAIL             BRENTWOOD COLONY        45.15N 99.30W
07/12/2004  1.00 INCH        FAULK              SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HARDING