Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
319 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ND ATTM...WITH
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL SD. CONTINUE TO
EXPECT SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES EAST. THE PROBLEM IS LOW CLOUDS AND LACK OF
HEATING ACROSS THE NORTH AND ESPECIALLY EAST. EVEN IN PIR WHERE THE
TEMPS WERE UP TO 80 WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOW 60S CAP IS YET TO BE
BROKEN. LAPS CAPES ARE AROUND 1500 J/KG AT PIR WITH INSTABILITY AXIS
RUNNING N-S THROUGH BIS/MBG/PIR/VTN. CURRENTLY HAVE TS DEVELOPING
CENTRAL AND MOVING EAST...REACHING THE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL QUITE POSSIBLE THIS AFT/EVE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...LESS THE FAR NW. AND GIVE SHEAR PROFILES...HAVE ISSUED
TORNADO WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CWA.

COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS STILL INDICATING STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SE SD
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MCS MAY TRACK NE INTO CENTRAL SD FRI MORNING.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY...REACHING N IA...KEEPING
TEMPS COOL. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ELEVATED
TS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PERSISTENCE LOOKS LIKE A GOOD FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD
AS MEAN LARGE SCALE TROUGHING REMAINS OUT WEST WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS AS S/WS MOVE THROUGH. THUS...THERE WILL BE MORE CHANCES OF
PRECIP DURING THE EXTENDED THAN NOT. DID NOT CHANGE PREVIOUS GRIDS
MUCH.

&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

KNUTSVIG/MOHR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1144 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2004

SDZ003-015-201020-
CORSON-DEWEY-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS BIG STONE
AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MNZ039-046-SDZ004>011-016>023-033>037-045-048-051-201020-
BIG STONE-BROWN-BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-
FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-
POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-TRAVERSE-WALWORTH-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS BIG STONE
AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE AIRMASS OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MEANWHILE...A FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD EVENING...AND SOME OF
THOSE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND HIGH WIND THE MAIN
THREATS. HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO. MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
SUNDOWN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

KNUTSVIG