Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Las Vegas, NV

MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
300 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2003

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEVADA WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
HIGH WHICH WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT.

.DISCUSSION...QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER WESTERN LAS VEGAS AND THE
SHEEP/SPRING MOUNTAINS AND OVER NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF STORMS ARE SET TO ENTER THE FAR EASTERN AREAS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. EXPECT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THINGS BEGIN TO STABILIZE. TEMPS WERE
FOR THE MOST PART HELD BELOW FORECASTED HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON AS
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CONTINUED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. LESS CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK UP A FEW DEGREES BEFORE SLIGHTLY
COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM BUT SHORT
TERM MODELS DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT. A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTH. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS. ADEQUATE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY COULD FIRE A FEW STORMS
ACROSS OTHER AREAS MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH CENTER. THEY MOVE IT BACK WEST TO
NEAR THE UT/NV BORDER ON SUNDAY...MOVE IT SLIGHTLY NORTH FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...THEN BRING IT BACK TO THE UT/CO BORDER ON WEDNESDAY.
GFS/EURO CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE CIRCULATING UP
AROUND IT THOUGH. GFS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND STABILIZATION ON
SUNDAY...ESP OVER WESTERN HALF OF CWA. HOWEVER...EURO IS SHOWING
MUCH THE OPPOSITE AND HAVE LEFT LOW CHANCE POPS IN EVERYWHERE. GFS
ALSO HAS BEEN ADVERTISING AN INVERTED TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN MOHAVE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES ON SUNDAY. HAVE LEFT
HIGHER POPS DAY AND NIGHT OVER THESE AREAS. OTHER MAJOR THING TO
WATCH IS EURO/GFS ARE PLACING THE HIGH CENTER NORTH OF THE CWA ON
TUESDAY WHILE DEVELOPING A LOW OVER BAJA. THIS WOULD PLACE ENTIRE
CWA IN DECENT EASTERLY FLOW WHILE BRINGING IN A BIG SLUG OF
MID-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY BUT
WILL WAIT TO JUMP ON THIS UNTIL I SEE ANOTHER RUN.

.LAS...NONE.

SALMEN/OROW

AZZ001>003-036-CAZ026>029-NVZ013>022-241300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
514 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHERN
NEVADA/NORTHWEST ARIZONA

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS...CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING OR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE REGION.