Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Tucson, AZ

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST TUE JUL 15 2003

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE REMAINING IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK AS REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM CLAUDETTE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

.DISCUSSION...12Z KTUS SOUNDING SHOWED MORE MOISTURE...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS UP TO 1.13...AND A LESS STABLE PROFILE
WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF MID LEVEL COOLING. NICE SHEAR IN THE 7K
TO 15K FT LEVEL AS WELL. DEBRIS CLOUD COMBINED WITH SOME DRYING IN
THE FAR EAST (KEPZ SOUNDING AROUND .81 PW) SLOWED DEVELOPMENT IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON IN SOME SPOTS. SURFACE DEWPTS IN FAR EASTERN NEW
MEXICO IN THE 30S AND 40S...BUT UPSTREAM FOR MOST OF OUR AREA
DOESNT VEER AROUND TO THE EAST UNTIL AROUND 12K TO 15K FT FOR RIGHT
NOW. LOWER LEVELS WILL START TO TREND MORE TOWARD THE EAST OVER THE
NEXT 18HRS...WHICH WILL BE AN INITIALLY DRYISH FLOW WEDNESDAY. FOR
TODAY THOUGH...LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECYCLE WHATS ALREADY
IN PLACE AS WELL AS SEE SOME WEAK REINFORCEMENT OFF THE LOWER
DESERTS. AN INCREASE TO SCATTERED COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
WEAK CONVERGENT AREA THIS AFTERNOON THAT SHOULD SHIFT WEST THROUGH
COCHISE AND INTO EASTERN PIMA COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. STILL DRY ENOUGH IN THE LOWER 10K FT TO MAKE DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND OUTFLOWS THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MODELS STEERING REMNANTS OF CLAUDETTE IN OUR GENERAL DIRECTION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT BUMP IN MOISTURE WITH
THIS REGARDLESS OF THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE REMNANT CORE. FOCUS AND
MOISTURE INCREASE LATER THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH POPS PUSHED
INTO THE HIGH SCATTERED RANGE (ULTIMATELY MAY SEE NUMEROUS
COVERAGE). STILL GOING SCATTERED FRIDAY...BUT DENSE DEBRIS CLOUD
FOLLOWED BY SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE REMNANT WAVE MAY LIMIT
OVERALL CONVECTION (BUT KEEP SHOWERY ACTIVITY WITH THE MOISTURE)
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CLIMATOLOGY AFTER THAT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
(SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS). M

.TWC...NONE.

AZZ019-029>035-160600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1125 AM MST TUE JUL 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SYNOPSIS...THERE IS ONCE AGAIN A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE LINE ALONG THE NEW NEW MEXICO-ARIZONA BORDER WILL MOVE
WEST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNLESS SKIES DO
NOT CLEAR AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...THIS CONVERGENCE LINE WILL
HELP TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BECAUSE OF DRY LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND EAST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ALOFT...STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH AND BLOWING
DUST. THUS THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE THE RISK OF ONE INCH RAINFALL
REMAINS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

DISCUSSION...FOR THE FIFTH STRAIGHT DAY...THERE IS A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT RISK OF DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IF ANYTHING THE RISK IS A BIT HIGHER TODAY SINCE THE
ATMOSPHERE IS SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AND THERE IS A WEAK CONVERGENCE
LINE TO HELP FOCUS DEVELOPMENT. THE CONVERGENCE LINE IS WEAK...BUT
IT SEPARATES MUCH DRIER AIR OVER NEW MEXICO FROM MORE MOIST AIR OVER
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE WEST OF THIS
LINE...WHICH BY LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD EXTEND FROM SAFFORD TO AROUND
BISBEE. MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO ROLL OFF THE MOGOLLON RIM...WHITE MOUNTAINS AND GILA MOUNTAINS.
COLLIDING THUNDERSTORMS AND OUTFLOWS WILL THEN TEND TO PROPAGATE
WEST SOUTHWEST INTO THE DESERTS OF PIMA AND SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTIES
AROUND SUNSET. OVERALL STORM MOTION WILL BE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 15
MPH...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS COULD MOVE QUITE A BIT FASTER
AND RADIALLY AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS.

THE EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS...PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.1 INCHES AND
THE RATHER SPOTTY NATURE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP THE RISK OF
HEAVY RAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY THAT A CELL MERGER OR TWO WILL PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF DECAYING HURRICANE CLAUDETTE MOVES INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER BY LATE THURSDAY...THE REMNANTS OF CLAUDETTE ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO OR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF NOT ONLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
ALSO HEAVY RAIN. THIS RISK WOULD THEN CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PYTLAK