Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Tucson, AZ

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
638 PM MST MON JUL 14 2003

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL GRADUALLY BROADEN AND
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES BY MIDWEEK. LIMITED
MOISTURE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY WILL
KEEP THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE RATHER SPOTTY. AN UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK IF TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH CLAUDETTE MOVES OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARDS ARIZONA.

.DISCUSSION...FOR THE 3RD EVENING IN A ROW, ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE
WAITED TO JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING TO APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS OVER
PARTS OF FAR SE AZ. 00Z KTUS SOUNDING IS JUST A SMIDGE DRIER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BUT 700-500MB SHEAR IS NEAR A RESPECTIBLE
25KTS WITH A DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES UP TO 550MB. WELL BE CLOSELY
WATCHING FOR CELL AND/OR OUTFLOW MERGERS OVER THE 2-3HRS, ESPECIALLY
SE OF KTUS. SEE SWOMCD FROM SPC FOR MORE INFO.

FORECAST AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO RAISE POPS ABOUT 10 PCT OVER
THE SE 1/3 OF THE CWA AND TO ADD GUSTY WIND WORDING.  I ALSO HAVE
TRIMMED POPS/WORDING BACK ACROSS ZONES 19/30 WHERE ATMOSPHERE HAS
BEEN PARTIALLY WORKED OVER BY OUTFLOW.

PYTLAK

.TWC...NONE.

AZZ019-029>035-151400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1150 AM MST MON JUL 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA

.DAY ONE...TODAY
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FALL ACROSS THE AREA WITH NO
RECENT REINFORCEMENT. WHILE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE A LITTLE
LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG AND
EVEN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH.

DISCUSSION...12Z KTUS SOUNDING DOWN TO AN EVEN 1 INCH ON THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER...A GENERAL TREND FROM TUCSON EASTWARD ON THE
GOES SOUNDER ESTIMATE IMAGERY. SURFACE DEWPTS MIXING DOWN TO NEAR 50
LATE MORNING...PROBABLY INTO THE UPPER 40S THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AS A TREND WITH SOME WEAK WARMING IN THE MID
LEVELS. COVERAGE A LITTLE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EVEN SO...MAIN CONCERN WOULD STILL
BE POSSIBLE SEVERE WINDS. WEAK EASTERLY IMPULSE UNDER THE HIGH COULD
SERVE AS A FOCUS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME STORMS MOVING BACK INTO THE
AREA IN THE EVENING HOURS FROM NEW MEXICO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MEYER