Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
325 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2003

COLD FRONT SLOWLY MIGRATING ACROSS NE OK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
DRYLINE OUT AHEAD OF MAIN BOUNDARY NOTED ACROSS SE OK. OUT AHEAD OF
FRONT/DRYLINE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS. NEGATING
FACTORS FOR CONVECTION WOULD BE HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
STABILIZED ACROSS FAR ERN OK AND NW AR WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS
LINGERED LATE THIS MORNING. CAP IN PLACE ACROSS SE OK ALSO MAY LIMIT
CONVECTION...HOWEVER IF CAP CAN BE BROKEN(CONVECTIVE TEMP LOW 90S)
FEEL BEST CHC FOR SVR WOULD BE ACROSS SE OK ALONG DRYLINE. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT COMBINED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
WOULD LIKELY DIMINISH CONVECTION AFTER SUNSET. WILL GO AHEAD HAVE
LOW POPS FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR ERN OK AND NW AR. MOISTURE
NEVER REALLY GETS SCOURED OUT BEHIND FRONT...SO LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT(ESP. ACROSS NW AR) MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG IF LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT. NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN ZONES ATTM.  NICE DAY ON TAP
TOMORROW BUT WAA PATTERN QUICKLY RETURNS BY TOMORROW NIGHT. LOW POPS
LOOK GOOD FRI NIGHT... BUT BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE SAT/SAT NIGHT AS
SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP OVER
THE AREA.

THE LATTER HALF THE WEEKEND STILL POSES AN INTERESTING SCENARIO. AND
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDANT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS STILL
IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH SWEEPING DRYLINE/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO
PANS OUT...DRIER AIR SHOULD MAKE IT INTO NW AR BY LATE SUNDAY
EVENING. WILL KEEP REMAINDER OF EXTENDED PRETTY MUCH AS IS...WITH
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
TUL   56   75   56   74  / 10   10   20   30
FSM   58   79   57   77  / 30   10   20   40
MLC   57   79   58   80  / 20   10   20   20
BVO   53   74   53   73  / 10   10   20   40
FYV   54   73   50   71  / 20   10   20   40
BYV   54   73   50   70  / 30   10   20   40
MKO   57   76   56   75  / 20   10   20   40
MIO   54   73   52   70  / 20   10   20   40
F10   57   76   57   76  / 10   10   20   30
HHW   59   81   60   83  / 30   10   20   20

FORECAST ID= 23

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AT MID DAY A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.  TO THE EAST OF THIS FRONT THE ATMOSPHERE WAS QUITE MOIST.
THIS MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE INTO INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.  AS TEMPERATURES WARM
THE LID ON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IMPOSED BY A WARM LAYER OF AIR
OFF THE SURFACE MAY BE BROKEN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM.  IN
ADDITION...THE COLD FRONT COULD AID IN THIS PROCESS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  IF A
THUNDERSTORM DOES FORM THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE IT WOULD BECOME
SEVERE.  THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHERE HEATING IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WARNING PROBABILITIES CAN BE FOUND IN
THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN PROBABILITIES
REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTH LATE FRIDAY
AND LIKELY SPAWN MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVER
THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TODAY.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 AM CDT THU MAY 01 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0118 AM    4 W GRAINOLA              OK   0.88 IN HAIL
05/01/03   OSAGE

ARZ001>002-010>011-019>020-029-OKZ049-053-060>063-066>076-020200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
400 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH
#202 UNTIL 900 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN ARKANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES...
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS:

BENTON                CARROLL               CRAWFORD
MADISON               WASHINGTON

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS:

FRANKLIN              SEBASTIAN

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 17 COUNTIES...
IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA:

CHEROKEE              MUSKOGEE              SEQUOYAH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

ADAIR                 DELAWARE              MAYES
OKMULGEE              ROGERS                TULSA
WAGONER

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

CHOCTAW               HASKELL               LATIMER
LE FLORE              MCINTOSH              PITTSBURG
PUSHMATAHA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ANTLERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE...
BROKEN ARROW...CEDARVILLE...CLAREMORE...CLAYTON...EUFAULA...EUREKA
SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...FORT SMITH...HUGO...HUNTSVILLE...JAY...
MCALESTER...MOUNTAINBURG...MUSKOGEE...NATURAL DAM...OKMULGEE...
OZARK...POTEAU...PRYOR...ROGERS...SALLISAW...SAND SPRINGS...SILOAM
SPRINGS...SPRINGDALE...STIGLER...STILWELL...TAHLEQUAH...TULSA...VAN
BUREN...WAGONER AND WILBURTON.