Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 439, NWS Tulsa, OK

December 22, 2003Sebastian County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Dec 22, 2003, 8:27 PM CST for Sebastian County, Arkansas. It was in force for 18 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Dec 22, 2003, 8:27 PM CST (02:27 UTC)
Expired: Dec 22, 2003, 8:45 PM CST
In force: 18 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Sebastian County, AR

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 26 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Dec 22, 3:25 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 2.5 hours before the alert went out and 208 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 33 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -35 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 707 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 122 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 153 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS54 KTSA 230227
SVRTUL
ARC131-230245-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
825 PM CST MON DEC 22 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN SEBASTIAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 845 PM CST

* AT 825 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 3    
  MILES WEST OF MANSFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...HUNTINGTON    
  AND MANSFIELD.

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA. 
STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

TWO INCH HAIL WAS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM JUST EAST OF HARTFORD.

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.

LAT...LON 3509 9437 3496 9435 3497 9423 3522 9407

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Dec 22, 4:55 PM CST, 3 hours 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 22, 4:55 PM CST, 3 hours 32 minutes before

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
455 PM CST MON DEC 22 2003

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
WHILE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA...CELL HAVE THUS FAR
REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.  VILS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND 50 DBZ
CORES TO 20 TO 25 THOUSAND FEET ARE OUR INITIAL THRESHOLDS
UNTIL WE RECEIVE A REPORT.  SO FAR NOT EVEN A SMALL HAIL REPORT HAS
BEEN RECEIVED.

FORECAST ID= 08

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 22, 3:45 PM CST, 4 hours 42 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
345 PM CST MON DEC 22 2003

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231200-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CST FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND
GUSTS TO 65 MPH.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST HOWEVER WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TECHNICAL DISCUSSION...SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF MINUS 2 TO MINUS 4
DEGREES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY...HOWEVER
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM WILL SUSTAIN THE
STRONGER UPDRAFTS.  SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION SUGGESTS A LINEAR MCS
WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOS WHILE LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS /<8000FT
AGL/ SUPPORT HAIL OF SEVERE CRITERIA.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
COOLER AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY THE WEEKEND.  RAIN
CHANCES RETURN BY SATURDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND
GRAPHICAL INFORMATION

In the hours before

Local storm report, Dec 22, 7:07 PM CST, 1 hour 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
707 PM CST MON DEC 22 2003

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     HAIL             3 E PORTER              35.87N 95.47W
12/22/2003  0.88 INCH        WAGONER            OK   PUBLIC

&&

GM

Special weather statement, Dec 22, 7:15 PM CST, 1 hour 12 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
715 PM CST MON DEC 22 2003

OKZ057-058-062-063-068-069-230215-
OTTAWA OK-CRAIG OK-DELAWARE OK-MAYES OK-ADAIR OK-CHEROKEE OK-
715 PM CST MON DEC 22 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 815 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OTTAWA...CRAIG...DELAWARE...MAYES AND ADAIR

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     CHEROKEE

AT 715 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM QUAPAW TO KETCHUM TO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MURPHY
TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HULBERT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...PROCTOR...
BALLARD...WATTS...JAY...OAKS...LEACH...TWIN OAKS...KANSAS...
COLCORD...CHLOETA...ZENA...CLEORA...GROVE...BERNICE...TAHLEQUAH...
HULBERT...LOST CITY...PEGGS...SCRAPER...MIAMI...COMMERCE...AFTON...
FAIRLAND...NARCISSA...WYANDOTTE...OTTAWA...PEORIA...QUAPAW...
CARDIN...PICHER...KETCHUM...MURPHY...LOCUST GROVE...ROSE...SALINA...
SPAVINAW...STRANG...PENSACOLA...LANGLEY AND DISNEY.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH.

Special weather statement, Dec 22, 8:03 PM CST, 24 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
803 PM CST MON DEC 22 2003

OKZ068-070-072-074-230300-
CHEROKEE OK-MUSKOGEE OK-SEQUOYAH OK-HASKELL OK-
803 PM CST MON DEC 22 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 900 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     CHEROKEE...MUSKOGEE AND SEQUOYAH

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     HASKELL

AT 803 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WEBBERS FALLS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...TAMAHA...
SALLISAW...MC KEY...VIAN...GORE...MARBLE CITY...BOX...COOKSON...PORUM
AND WEBBERS FALLS.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

Local storm report, Dec 22, 8:10 PM CST, 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
810 PM CST MON DEC 22 2003

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             PANAMA                  35.17N 94.67W
12/22/2003  0.88 INCH        LE FLORE           OK   PUBLIC

            LASTED ABOUT 10 MINUTES

&&

GM

Local storm report, Dec 22, 8:22 PM CST, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
822 PM CST MON DEC 22 2003

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0816 PM     HAIL             HARTFORD                35.02N 94.38W
12/22/2003  0.88 INCH        SEBASTIAN          AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

GW

Local storm report, Dec 22, 8:27 PM CST, 0 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
827 PM CST MON DEC 22 2003

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 PM     HAIL             2 E HARTFORD            35.02N 94.34W
12/22/2003  2.00 INCH        SEBASTIAN          AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            HAIL ON THE GROUND.

0824 PM     HAIL             2 E HARTFORD            35.02N 94.34W
12/22/2003  2.00 INCH        SEBASTIAN          AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&
TWO INCH HAIL ON THE GROU8ND.

GW

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Dec 22, 7:21 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Sebastian	39 min
Dec 22, 7:59 PM CST	Tornado Warning	TSA	Sebastian	31 min
Dec 22, 8:47 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Sebastian	43 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.