Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
300 PM CST TUE MAR 25 2003

COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST MOVED SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS THIS EVENING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF TULSA
OR AREAS CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.  COULD BE SOME SEVERE STORMS IN THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA WHICH IS NEAREST TO THE FRONT.

EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DECREASE THIS EVENING.  ALL THE MODELS INSIST
THAT THE DEW POINTS WILL DO THE SAME.  MY LOW TEMPERATURES DEPEND ON
THESE FACTORS AND THE WIND DIEING OFF.  IF THESE THINGS DO NOT COME
TOGETHER THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE REVISED.

DESPITE WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT...TOMORROW IS ALMOST SURE TO BE SUNNIER
AND WARMER WITH WINDS COMING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH.  THE SOUTH
WINDS WILL ASSURE MILDER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW NIGHT.

WITH A POTENT UPPER WAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.  THURSDAY SHOULD BE
QUITE WARM AND WENT WITH THE WARMER ETA MOS FOR THE HIGHS THAT DAY.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER.  STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY
SOME WRAP AROUND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT FREEZE APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TUL   40   70   50   76  / 10    5    5   10
FSM   43   70   45   76  / 30    5    5   10
MLC   42   71   48   78  / 20    5    5   10
BVO   35   70   45   76  / 10    5    5   10
FYV   36   66   40   72  / 30    5    5   10
BYV   34   66   38   71  / 20    5    5   10
MIO   34   68   43   73  / 20    5    5   10
F10   41   70   50   77  / 20    5    5   10
HHW   43   72   47   78  / 30    5    5   10

FORECAST ID= 17

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ABBAS

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CST TUE MAR 25 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
AREA 1...SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 44

PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...100

IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...
     PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS...30
     TIME OF INITIAL EVENT...700 PM
     PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO / F2 OR GREATER TORNADO...0/0
     PROBABILITY OF GOLFBALL HAIL OR LARGER...5
     PROBABILITY OF 73 MPH WIND OR GREATER... LESS THAN 5

GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCURRENCE
ANYWHERE IN THE DEFINED AREA.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.  MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO AID THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.  DEEP
LAYER SHEER WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS HOWEVER
LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT LIMITED.  LOW WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINTAIN HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING
SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS AS AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  THE AIRMASS ACROSS THIS REGION IS
MUCH MORE UNSTABLE HOWEVER A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS IN PLACE AND
WILL LIKELY INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THEY WOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
AFTER THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE LIMITED SO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL BE MARGINAL.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY SOUTH AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 44.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1130 AM CST TUE MAR 25 2003

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0341 AM    FORAKER                   OK   .88 INCH HAIL
03/25/03   OSAGE                          REPORTED BY CO-OP OBSERVER

0300 AM    1 W BIGCABIN              OK   NON TSTM WIND DAMAGE
03/25/03   CRAIG                          ROOF DAMAGE AND LARGE                                     DAMAGE TO BARN AND LARGE
                                          TREE DOWN...REPORTED BY
                                          BARTLESVILLE EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0258 PM CST TUE MAR 25 2003

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0230 PM    PETTIGREW                 AR   0.75 IN HAIL
03/25/03   MADISON

NK