Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
922 PM CST MON MAR 24 2003

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FLARED UP SOUTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA CITY THIS EVENING
IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN OSAGE
COUNTY TO HOBART IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING IS ALSO AIDING THIS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND WOULD EXPECT THEM TO MOVE INTO
THE TULSA FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 11PM AND MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AT THIS HOUR SEEM TO BE ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. AS TIME WEARS ON...I WOULD EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE AND SHOULD FORM
NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WITH THIS SAID...CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS HANDLED WELL AND I WILL
ONLY MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS.

FORECAST ID= 10

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CST MON MAR 24 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
AREA 1...ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MCALESTER OKLAHOMA TO FORT
SMITH ARKANSAS

PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...40

IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...
     PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS...30
     TIME OF INITIAL EVENT...N/A
     PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO / F2 OR GREATER TORNADO...2/0
     PROBABILITY OF GOLFBALL HAIL OR LARGER...5
     PROBABILITY OF 73 MPH WIND OR GREATER...5

GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCURRENCE
ANYWHERE IN THE DEFINED AREA.

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS KANSAS.  THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
UNTIL AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE NORTH BEGINS
PUSHING THE FRONT INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
LATER TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY PRECLUDING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA.  HOWEVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS A
30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP OVER THE AREA. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE
AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE LACKING...ELEVATED
INSTABILITIES(-2 TO -4)AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE
TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOKED
AREA. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY STORMS THAT MAY
BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. STORM
CHANCES RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK AS A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

OKZ060>062-064-066-067-250930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
130 AM CST TUE MAR 25 2003

...HEAT BURST AFFECTING PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

A DYING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE...STRONG WINDS
OF UP TO 50 MILES AN HOUR WERE OCCURRING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
COMPLEX OF STORMS. A TEMPERATURE RISE OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES HAS BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE HIGH WINDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES OF RAIN MAY
ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONG WINDS.

WIND GUSTS REACHED 48 MILES AN HOUR AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN TULSA AND THE TEMPERATURE CLIMBED TO 75 DEGREES
AT AROUND 110 AM AS THE HEAT BURST AFFECTED THIS AREA.

THE GUSTY WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF WAGONER...ROGERS AND MAYES
COUNTIES THROUGH 330 AM.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL LAST ABOUT 15 MINUTES. AFTER THAT TIME...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO THE 60S.