Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 220, NWS Tulsa, OK

May 16, 2003Crawford County, Sebastian County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 16, 2003, 6:45 AM CDT for Crawford County, Sebastian County, Arkansas. It was in force for 75 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 16, 2003, 6:45 AM CDT (11:45 UTC)
Expired: May 16, 2003, 8:00 AM CDT
In force: 75 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Crawford County, AR, Sebastian County, AR

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 17 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 16, 4:25 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 11.8 hours before the alert went out and 169 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 341 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -20 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1169 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 65 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 109 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

766 
WUUS54 KTSA 161145
SVRTUL
ARC033-131-161300-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
645 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CRAWFORD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
  SEBASTIAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 800 AM CDT

* AT 645 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
  A LINE EXTENDING FROM 32 MILES WEST OF NATURAL DAM TO 17 MILES WEST
  OF BONANZA TO 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HARTFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
  50 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...MULBERRY...
  FORT SMITH...HARTFORD...HACKETT...GREENWOOD...BARLING...LAVACA...
  HUNTINGTON...MIDLAND...BURNVILLE...EXCELSIOR...MANSFIELD...
  BONANZA...JENNY LIND...BLOOMER...MOUNTAINBURG...VAN BUREN...ALMA...
  CEDARVILLE...NATURAL DAM...CHESTER...DYER...FIGURE FIVE...RUDY AND
  LEE CREEK.

WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA. STAY
INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3569 9448 3534 9444 3495 9446 3512 9416
          3557 9402 3573 9422

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 16, 3:12 AM CDT, 3 hours 33 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 16, 3:12 AM CDT, 3 hours 33 minutes before

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
312 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

STRONG STORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL ARE BEARING DOWN ON THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.  EXPECT A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THIS MORNING PRIMING THE AREA FOR POSSIBLE
FLOODING PROBLEMS LATER TODAY WHEN ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS FORM.

MAIN DRIVING FEATURE IS A STRONG UPPER LOW WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT.  PRECIPITAL WATERS AND INSTABILITY ARE BOTH QUITE HIGH
SO THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGH AS WELL.
IN ADDITION...THE ETA QPF IS QUITE ROBUST AS IS HPCS DAY 1 QPF.

THE  UPPER LOW HANGS IN THE VICINITY TOMORROW SO RAIN CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.  TOMORROW SHOULD AT LEAST BE A CLOUDY AND DREARY DAY.
HAVE SOME TEMPERATURE ISSUES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  DO NOT SEE THE DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA GETTING SWEPT AWAY ANY TIME SOON.
THUS...LOWS WOULD HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING INTO THE 50S AS THE GFS
MOS SUGGESTS.  WITH WARMER LOWS WILL ALSO HAVE WARMER DAY TIME TEMPS
ALTHOUGH DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A DIURNAL RANGE.

SOME OF THE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY GET SWEPT OUT OF THE AREA TO MAKE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY RATHER PLEASANT AND MAINLY DRY DAYS.  THE NEXT
DECENT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT.

TUL   77   65   74   60  / 80   80   20   10
FSM   80   67   77   60  / 80   80   50   20
MLC   80   67   77   61  / 80   80   30   10
BVO   76   64   73   56  / 80   80   20   10
FYV   75   66   72   56  / 80   80   50   20
BYV   75   66   72   55  / 80   80   60   30
MKO   78   66   75   60  / 80   80   30   10
MIO   76   65   73   56  / 80   80   40   20
F10   79   66   76   60  / 80   80   20   10
HHW   82   68   79   62  / 80   80   30   10

FORECAST ID= 17

.TSA...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ZONES ARZ001>002...
ARZ010>011...ARZ019>020...ARZ029.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ZONES OKZ049...
OKZ053>076.

ABBAS

Hazardous weather outlook, May 16, 6:00 AM CDT, 45 minutes before

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
   MORE CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
ACROSS POINTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A VINITA TO MUSKOGEE TO MCALESTER
LINE THIS MORNING.  THESE STORMS STARTED LAST EVENING IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND TRAVERSED OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.   THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WHICH SPAWNED THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST FROM NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO THIS MORNING AND INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.
INSTABILITY...WIND FIELDS AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN TRIGGER SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTENOON.  THESE
STORMS MAY FORM OVER CENTRAL OR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SPREAD INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.  SUPERCELL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT FIRST...BUT THE STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM A COMPLEX WHICH WOULD
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
GIVEN THE RAINFALL THIS MORNING AND THE EXPECTED MAGNITUDE OF THE
RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME A
PROBLEM.  THUS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED..

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH HAS AND WILL PRODUCE STORMINESS WILL
HEAD OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR A DAY OR TWO.  AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 16, 3:28 AM CDT, 3 hours 17 minutes before

OKZ054>056-061-160930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
328 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR...WASHINGTON...
NOWATA AND ROGERS COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM CDT...

AT 328 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHWEST OF BIGHEART TO JUST NORTH OF
SKIATOOK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF
VERA...DEWEY...COPAN...NOWATA...DELAWARE... AVANT...WOLCO...
...BIGHEART...AND BARTLESVILLE WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
THROUGH 430 AM CDT.   WINDS UP TO 50 MILES AN HOUR AND SMALL HAIL
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN
CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

Special weather statement, May 16, 4:15 AM CDT, 2 hours 30 minutes before

ARZ001>002-010>011-019>020-029-OKZ058-063-068>069-072-076-161400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
415 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
#390 UNTIL 900 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN ARKANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES...
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS:

BENTON                CARROLL               CRAWFORD
MADISON               WASHINGTON

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS:

FRANKLIN              SEBASTIAN

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES...
IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA:

CHEROKEE              SEQUOYAH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

ADAIR                 DELAWARE              OTTAWA

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

LE FLORE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE...CEDARVILLE...
EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...FORT SMITH...HUNTSVILLE...JAY...
MIAMI...MOUNTAINBURG...NATURAL DAM...OZARK...POTEAU...ROGERS...
SALLISAW...SILOAM SPRINGS...SPRINGDALE...STILWELL...TAHLEQUAH AND VAN
BUREN.

Local storm report, May 16, 5:20 AM CDT, 1 hour 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0520 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0500 AM    3 WNW STIGLER             OK   58 MPH TSTORM WIND
05/16/03   HASKELL

0410 AM    BARTLESVILLE              OK   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   WASHINGTON                     SCATTERED DAMAGE AROUND
                                          THE WEST SIDE OF CITY.  AT
                                          LEAST 3 STRUCTURES HAVE
                                          LOST PARTS OF ROOF.  POWER
                                          OUT IN THOSE AREAS.

0350 AM    FORAKER                   OK   67 MPH TSTORM WIND
05/16/03   OSAGE

0340 AM    WYNONA                    OK   59 MPH TSTORM WIND
05/16/03   OSAGE

0335 AM    DRUMRIGHT                 OK   60 MPH TSTORM WIND
05/16/03   CREEK

GM

Local storm report, May 16, 5:52 AM CDT, 53 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0552 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0520 AM    TAHLEQUAH                 OK   0 MPH TSTORM WIND
05/16/03   CHEROKEE                       SCATTERED TREE DAMAGE
                                          AROUND CITY.

0515 AM    7 S TAHLEQUAH             OK   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   CHEROKEE                       UTILITY LINES DOWN IN THE
                                          KEYS AREA

GM

Local storm report, May 16, 5:56 AM CDT, 49 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT : CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0556 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0520 AM    TAHLEQUAH                 OK   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   CHEROKEE                       SCATTERED TREE DAMAGE
                                          AROUND CITY.

GM

Local storm report, May 16, 6:25 AM CDT, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0625 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0600 AM    RYE HILL                  AR   60 MPH TSTORM WIND
05/16/03   SEBASTIAN

0552 AM    3 W GENTRY                AR   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   BENTON                         CHICKEN HOUSE DAMAGED
                                          ALONG HIGHWAY 43 JUST JUST
                                          SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 12
                                          INTERSECTION.

0550 AM    1 W SILOAM SPRINGS        AR   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   BENTON                         TREES AND TRAILERS
                                          SUSTAINED DAMAGE ON WEST
                                          SIDE OF CITY.

GM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 16, 5:28 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Crawford, Sebastian, Washington	62 min
May 16, 5:56 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Carroll, Franklin, Madison	79 min
May 16, 6:52 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Carroll, Franklin, Madison	23 min
May 16, 1:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Franklin, Madison	54 min
May 16, 4:04 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Crawford, Sebastian	56 min
May 16, 4:27 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Washington	63 min
May 16, 4:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Franklin	55 min
May 16, 4:58 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Crawford	47 min
May 16, 5:34 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Madison	4 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.