Alert archive / Oklahoma / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Tulsa, OK

March 13, 2003Choctaw County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 13, 2003, 1:26 AM CST for Choctaw County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 49 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 13, 2003, 1:26 AM CST (07:26 UTC)
Expired: Mar 13, 2003, 2:15 AM CST
In force: 49 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Choctaw County, OK

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 180 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 7.4 hours before the alert went out and 214 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1816 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -68 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1044 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 60 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 135 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.5
Supercell composite: 3.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS54 KTSA 130726
SVRTUL
OKC023-130815-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
126 AM CST THU MAR 13 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR
  CHOCTAW COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 215 AM CST

* AT 126 AM CST SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO
  65 MPH WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES
  NORTHEAST OF KENT TO 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOSWELL...MOVING
  SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE... HUGO...GOODLAND...SAWYER...FORT
  TOWSON...BOSWELL...SOPER...MESSER AND KENT.

DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS...MOVE TO A SAFE PLACE
NOW. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO HIGH
WINDS AND MAY BE OVERTURNED.

LAT...LON 3422 9535 3406 9617 3344 9542 3360 9460

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 12, 8:26 PM CST, 5 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 12, 8:26 PM CST, 5 hours before

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
826 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH JUST ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA...INCLUDING TULSA METRO AREA. THUNDERSTORMS JUST NOW INITIATING
ACROSS NW PORTION OF THE CWA...ALONG A LINE STRETCHING SOUTHWEST
FROM SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WILL QUICKLY UPDATE ZONES TO
INCLUDE THE WATCH. WILL ALSO RAISE AREA MINIMUMS ABOUT A CATEGORY AS
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE CAA WILL LAG FROPA FAR ENOUGH TO HOLD MINS
UP. IN ADDITION...WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER A BIT.

TUL   59   68   43   74  / 60    5    5    5
FSM   60   73   46   74  / 50   20   10    5
MLC   62   72   49   77  / 50   10   10    5
BVO   53   67   37   73  / 60    0    5    5
FYV   57   67   37   71  / 60   10   10    5
BYV   56   64   38   70  / 70   10    5    5
MIO   56   64   39   72  / 70    5    5    5
F10   62   71   46   75  / 50    5   10    5
HHW   64   73   50   77  / 50   30   10    5

FORECAST ID= 06

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 12, 1:00 PM CST, 12 hours 26 minutes before

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
AREA 1...EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...70

IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...
  PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS...70
  TIME OF INITIAL EVENT...700 PM
  PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO/F2 OR GREATER TORNADO...5/2
  PROBABILITY OF GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER...50
  PROBABILITY OF 73 MPH WIND OR GREATER...15

AREA 2...REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS

PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...40

IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...
  PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS...50
  TIME OF INITIAL EVENT...700 PM
  PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO/F2 OR GREATER TORNADO...5/2
  PROBABILITY OF GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER...40
  PROBABILITY OF 73 MPH WIND OR GREATER...15

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DRY LINE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE SOARED INTO THE 50S AND 60S
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE IMPROVING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL
RESULT IN CAPES AROUND 2000 TO 2500 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...A CAPPING INVERSION SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
EFFECTIVELY LIMIT CONVECTION FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.

INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BUILD
SOUTHWEST-WARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
DURING THE EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.

IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY AFTER 6 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY

GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCURRENCE
ANYWHERE IN THE DEFINED AREA.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Mar 12, 9:25 PM CST, 4 hours 1 minute before

OKZ054>063-130600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
925 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST ALL OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA UNTIL 2 AM...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

OSAGE...PAWNEE...WASHINGTON...TULSA...NOWATA...ROGERS...CRAIG...MAYES
...OTTAWA...DELAWARE...CREEK...WAGONER...CHEROKEE...ADAID...OKFUSKEE
...OKMULGEE...MUSKOGEE...SEQUOYAH...MCINTOSH...PITTSBURG...HASKELL
...LATIMER AND LE FLORE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE REST OF THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.  LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR WITH
SOME OF THE STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

Special weather statement, Mar 12, 9:53 PM CST, 3 hours 33 minutes before

OKZ064-130445-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
953 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR CREEK COUNTY UNTIL 1045 PM
   CST...

AT 953 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MILFAY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
THE COMMUNITIES OF BRISTOW...MILFAY...SLICK AND DEPEW WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM THROUGH 1045 PM CST.

Local storm report, Mar 12, 10:43 PM CST, 2 hours 43 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1043 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1000 PM    MILFAY                    OK   1.00 IN HAIL
03/12/03   CREEK                          REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER

PS

Special weather statement, Mar 12, 10:47 PM CST, 2 hours 39 minutes before

KSZ099>101-MOZ088-093>095-101>104-OKZ054>063-130800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1047 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #35 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...OSAGE...WASHINGTON AND PAWNEE...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #35 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CST
FOR...NOWATA...OTTAWA...CRAIG...DELAWARE...ROGERS...MAYES AND TULSA
COUNTIES...

Local storm report, Mar 12, 11:34 PM CST, 1 hour 52 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1134 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0957 PM    MILFAY                    OK   0.88 IN HAIL
03/12/03   CREEK                          REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER

PS

Special weather statement, Mar 12, 11:35 PM CST, 1 hour 51 minutes before

OKZ056>058-060>063-130800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1135 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 36 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...CREEK AND WAGONER...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 36 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CST
FOR...CHEROKEE...ADAIR...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...MUSKOGEE...MCINTOSH
...SEQUOYAH...PITTSBURG...HASKELLLATIMER AND LE FLORE.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 12, 8:37 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Pawnee	38 min
Mar 12, 10:00 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek	60 min
Mar 12, 10:25 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Ottawa	50 min
Mar 12, 11:14 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Ottawa	46 min
Mar 12, 11:23 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Okfuskee	52 min
Mar 12, 11:58 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	McIntosh	47 min
Mar 13, 12:57 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Haskell, Latimer, Pittsburg, Pushmataha	48 min
Mar 13, 1:01 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Sequoyah	44 min
Mar 13, 1:36 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	LeFlore	54 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Oklahoma, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.