Alert archive / Oklahoma / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Tulsa, OK

March 12, 2003Ottawa County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 12, 2003, 11:14 PM CST for Ottawa County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 46 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 12, 2003, 11:14 PM CST (05:14 UTC)
Expired
Mar 13, 2003, 12:00 AM CST
In force
46 min
Issued by
NWS Tulsa, OK
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Ottawa County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 105 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Mar 12, 8:25 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 5.2 hours before the alert went out and 91 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2003-03-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1109 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2003-03-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 55 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1109 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-59 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1150 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
55 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
100 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.2
Supercell composite
1.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

484 
WUUS54 KTSA 130514
SVRTUL
OKC115-130600-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1114 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN OTTAWA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST

* AT 1114 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 9
  MILES WEST OF COMMERCE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...MIAMI...
  COMMERCE...QUAPAW AND PICHER.

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA. STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS 
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3699 9462 3677 9462 3682 9483 3686 9501
          3695 9501 3700 9504

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 12, 8:26 PM CST, 2 hours 48 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 12, 8:26 PM CST, 2 hours 48 minutes before
EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
826 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH JUST ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA...INCLUDING TULSA METRO AREA. THUNDERSTORMS JUST NOW INITIATING
ACROSS NW PORTION OF THE CWA...ALONG A LINE STRETCHING SOUTHWEST
FROM SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WILL QUICKLY UPDATE ZONES TO
INCLUDE THE WATCH. WILL ALSO RAISE AREA MINIMUMS ABOUT A CATEGORY AS
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE CAA WILL LAG FROPA FAR ENOUGH TO HOLD MINS
UP. IN ADDITION...WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER A BIT.

TUL   59   68   43   74  / 60    5    5    5
FSM   60   73   46   74  / 50   20   10    5
MLC   62   72   49   77  / 50   10   10    5
BVO   53   67   37   73  / 60    0    5    5
FYV   57   67   37   71  / 60   10   10    5
BYV   56   64   38   70  / 70   10    5    5
MIO   56   64   39   72  / 70    5    5    5
F10   62   71   46   75  / 50    5   10    5
HHW   64   73   50   77  / 50   30   10    5

FORECAST ID= 06

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 12, 1:00 PM CST, 10 hours 14 minutes before
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
AREA 1...EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...70

IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...
  PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS...70
  TIME OF INITIAL EVENT...700 PM
  PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO/F2 OR GREATER TORNADO...5/2
  PROBABILITY OF GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER...50
  PROBABILITY OF 73 MPH WIND OR GREATER...15

AREA 2...REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS

PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...40

IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...
  PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS...50
  TIME OF INITIAL EVENT...700 PM
  PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO/F2 OR GREATER TORNADO...5/2
  PROBABILITY OF GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER...40
  PROBABILITY OF 73 MPH WIND OR GREATER...15

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DRY LINE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE SOARED INTO THE 50S AND 60S
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE IMPROVING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL
RESULT IN CAPES AROUND 2000 TO 2500 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...A CAPPING INVERSION SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
EFFECTIVELY LIMIT CONVECTION FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.

INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BUILD
SOUTHWEST-WARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
DURING THE EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.

IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY AFTER 6 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY

GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCURRENCE
ANYWHERE IN THE DEFINED AREA.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Mar 12, 7:33 PM CST, 3 hours 41 minutes before
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-130400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
733 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THROUGH THE EVENING...

AT 730 PM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY TO A LOW
PRESSURE AREA NEAR PONCA CITY.  THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN
SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLIER THIS EVENING ALONG THIS FRONT HAVE
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY BUILD FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD DOWN INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 8 PM AND
10 PM. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO BE
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

PERSONS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHOULD PAY ATTENTION THROUGH THE
EVENING TO LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
Special weather statement, Mar 12, 8:12 PM CST, 3 hours 2 minutes before
OKZ054>063-130415-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
812 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

OSAGE...PAWNEE...WASHINGTON...TULSA...NOWATA...ROGERS...CRAIG...
MAYES...OTTAWA AND DELAWARE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 35 WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 2AM.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTH FROM KANSAS INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE REST OF THE EVENING.  LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.
Special weather statement, Mar 12, 9:25 PM CST, 1 hour 49 minutes before
OKZ054>063-130600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
925 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST ALL OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA UNTIL 2 AM...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

OSAGE...PAWNEE...WASHINGTON...TULSA...NOWATA...ROGERS...CRAIG...MAYES
...OTTAWA...DELAWARE...CREEK...WAGONER...CHEROKEE...ADAID...OKFUSKEE
...OKMULGEE...MUSKOGEE...SEQUOYAH...MCINTOSH...PITTSBURG...HASKELL
...LATIMER AND LE FLORE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE REST OF THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.  LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR WITH
SOME OF THE STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.
Special weather statement, Mar 12, 9:53 PM CST, 1 hour 21 minutes before
OKZ064-130445-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
953 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR CREEK COUNTY UNTIL 1045 PM
   CST...

AT 953 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MILFAY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
THE COMMUNITIES OF BRISTOW...MILFAY...SLICK AND DEPEW WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM THROUGH 1045 PM CST.
Local storm report, Mar 12, 10:43 PM CST, 31 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1043 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1000 PM    MILFAY                    OK   1.00 IN HAIL
03/12/03   CREEK                          REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER

PS
Special weather statement, Mar 12, 10:47 PM CST, 27 minutes before
KSZ099>101-MOZ088-093>095-101>104-OKZ054>063-130800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1047 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #35 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...OSAGE...WASHINGTON AND PAWNEE...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #35 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CST
FOR...NOWATA...OTTAWA...CRAIG...DELAWARE...ROGERS...MAYES AND TULSA
COUNTIES...

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 12, 8:37 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAPawnee38 min
Mar 12, 10:00 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACreek60 min
Mar 12, 10:25 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACraig, Ottawa50 min
Mar 12, 11:23 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAOkfuskee52 min
Mar 12, 11:58 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAMcIntosh47 min
Mar 13, 12:57 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAHaskell, Latimer, Pittsburg, Pushmataha48 min
Mar 13, 1:01 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSASequoyah44 min
Mar 13, 1:26 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAChoctaw49 min
Mar 13, 1:36 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSALeFlore54 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Oklahoma, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.