Severe Thunderstorm Warning 143, NWS Tulsa, OK

MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
550 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

SUPERCELL STORM PREVIOUSLY IN PITTSBURG COUNTY LOST ITS ORGANIZATION
AS THE MESOCYCLONE SEPARATED FROM THE THUNDERSTORM.  THE ORPHANED
MESO IS TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN PITTSBURG COUNTY AS OFF
545 AM...WHILE THE THUNDERSTORM IS MOVING MORE EAST THROUGH LATIMER
COUNTY.

LATIMER COUNTY CELL MAY BE TRYING REORGANIZE SOME...WITH A BROAD
ROTATION.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT FOR ROTATION POTENTIAL.

FORECAST ID = 08

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...

ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A LARGE HAIL AND WIND THREAT INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW ELEVATED CELLS STILL MAY DEVELOP
OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE MORNING AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
REMAINS IN PLACE...HOWEVER THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS UNTIL 7 AM CDT.

CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING AND WILL FURTHER
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
DRY LINE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILE A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRY
LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MID AFTERNOON.

DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. SURFACE HEATING MAY BE LIMITED EARLY
ON BY CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER ENOUGH CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON TO ALLOW ADEQUATE SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
DRY LINE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH MOST LIKELY INITIATION
BY AROUND 4 PM. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHETHER THE CAP CAN
BE BROKEN OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE DUE TO THE VERY
HIGH INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AS THE DRY LINE
REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT IT
APPEARS A THIS TIME THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED ENOUGH TO
REDUCE THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY WILL CAUSE THE DRY LINE TO PUSH EAST...
BRINGING YET ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE
AREA. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FINALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...THEN THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS VERY CLOSELY TODAY.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

OKZ061-067-080800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
222 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR ROGERS AND NORTHWEST
   WAGONER COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

AT 222 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES
NORTHWEST OF ONETA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  PEA SIZE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THE COMMUNITIES OF CLAREMORE...CATOOSA...VERDIGRIS...TIAWAH...
FOYIL...BUSHYHEAD AND ONETA WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM THROUGH
300 AM CDT.

ARZ001-010-OKZ069-080815-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
229 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR BENTON...WASHINGTON
   AND NORTHERN ADAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM CDT...

AT 229 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SUMMERS TO 11 MILES WEST OF
WATTS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

THE COMMUNITIES OF BENTONVILLE...SILOAM SPRINGS...ROGERS...SULPHUR
SPRINGS...SPRINGDALE...LINCOLN...AND PRAIRIE GROVE WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 315 AM CDT.

ARZ001-080915-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
320 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR BENTON COUNTY UNTIL 415 AM
   CDT...

AT 320 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GENTRY TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF
CAVE SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE
COMMUNITIES OF BENTONVILLE...ROGERS...GENTRY...PEA RIDGE...
SPRINGTOWN...CAVE SPRINGS...DECATUR AND BELLA VISTA WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 415 AM CDT.

OKZ049-053-059>060-064>076-081200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
356 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
#296 UNTIL 700 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 17 COUNTIES...
IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA:

CHEROKEE              MUSKOGEE              OKFUSKEE
SEQUOYAH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

ADAIR                 CREEK                 OKMULGEE
PAWNEE                TULSA                 WAGONER

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

CHOCTAW               HASKELL               LATIMER
LE FLORE              MCINTOSH              PITTSBURG
PUSHMATAHA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ANTLERS...BRISTOW...BROKEN ARROW...
CLAYTON...EUFAULA...HUGO...MCALESTER...MUSKOGEE...OKEMAH...
OKMULGEE...PAWNEE...POTEAU...SALLISAW...SAND SPRINGS...STIGLER...
STILWELL...TAHLEQUAH...TULSA...WAGONER AND WILBURTON.

OKZ071-081100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
457 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR MCINTOSH COUNTY UNTIL 600
   AM CDT...

AT 457 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES WEST OF STIDHAM...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM
IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE
COMMUNITIES OF CHECOTAH...STIDHAM...PIERCE AND RENTIESVILLE WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM THROUGH 600 AM CDT.

ARZ019>020-029-OKZ072-074>076-081400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
635 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
#298 UNTIL 900 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN ARKANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES...
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS:

CRAWFORD

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS:

FRANKLIN              SEBASTIAN

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES...
IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA:

SEQUOYAH

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

HASKELL               LATIMER               LE FLORE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CEDARVILLE...FORT SMITH...MOUNTAINBURG...
NATURAL DAM...OZARK...POTEAU...SALLISAW...STIGLER...VAN BUREN AND
WILBURTON.