Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
325 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

AND THE SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES...

ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG AND E OF 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL SPREAD N AND E OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-MORNING. SFC WARM
FRONT ANALYZED OVER SRN OK WILL LIFT/OR REFORM N INTO KS LATER THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF 70+KT MID-LEVEL JET PROGGD TO PUNCH INTO NW
OK/SWRN KS. HIGH TEMPS TRICKY WITH STRATUS EXTENDING FROM SRN OK SWD
THRU ERN TX AND DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO LOWER IF CLOUDS HANG TOUGH.

WARMING H7 TEMPS (+11/12C) WILL EFFECTIVELY INCREASE THE CAP ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY...AND SHUD HOLD CONVECTION IN CHECK FOR MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON. DRY LINE SHUD BE ACROSS CNTRL OK BY LATE IN THE
DAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL JET PUSHES INTO ERN KS/NRN OK.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING...WITH ETA KF SOLUTION SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT A LITTLE
EARLIER THAN OPERATIONAL ETA.

UNLIKE THE PAST FEW SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS...SURFACE-BASED CAPES ARE
NOT NEARLY AS EXTREME...WITH MESOETA SHOWING 3000-4000 J/KG BY LATE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE THE MESOETA DEPICTS 45 KTS OF SLY H85 FLOW.
WHILE THE HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE OVER ERN KS/WRN
MO...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF LONG-TRACK
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY OVER NE OK IF THE CAP IS BROKEN. DEVELOPMENT
FARTHER SE ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO SE OK IS STILL IN QUESTION DUE TO
PRESENCE OF A STRONGER CAP.

MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME HANDLING DRY LINE ON FRI...WITH MESOETA
KEEPING IT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS MIXES IT FARTHER W
INTO CNTRL/WRN OK. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON POPS
WHICH LOOKS GOOD GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DRY LINE POSITION AND
CAP STRENGTH.

ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE IS PROGGD TO THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY 06Z
SAT AND WILL SWING INTO WRN KS BY 18Z. DRY LINE WILL MAKE YET
ANOTHER PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH WIND
FIELDS/INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL F I N A L L Y GET SWEPT E OF THE AREA SAT
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SUN AND MON.

BIG DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN GFS/ECWMF BY TUES...WITH MRF BRINGING
MOISTURE RAPIDLY NWD WHILE ECMWF DRIVES SFC HIGH TO THE GULF COAST.
WILL LEAN TOWARD GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR TUES.

TUL   89   69   91   69  / 40   20   20   20
FSM   88   68   91   67  / 50   30   20   20
MLC   88   72   90   72  / 30   20   20   20
BVO   89   67   91   67  / 40   20   20   20
FYV   85   67   86   66  / 50   30   20   20
BYV   84   66   86   66  / 50   30   20   20
MKO   88   69   91   68  / 40   20   20   20
MIO   86   68   88   66  / 50   40   20   20
F10   89   70   91   70  / 30   20   20   20
HHW   87   73   90   71  / 40   20   20   20

FORECAST ID = 18

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1110 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
   OKLAHOMA...

A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT.  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.  LARGE
HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS...
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A MCALESTER...FORT SMITH LINE.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND AFFECT
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS REGION
WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS A DRY LINE
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  FURTHER SOUTH...ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...CONVECTION MAY BE SUPPRESSED DUE TO A STRONG
CAP.  HOWEVER ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY WOULD LIKELY BE
SEVERE.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

OKZ060-080715-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
148 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR TULSA COUNTY UNTIL 215 AM
   CDT...

AT 148 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES
SOUTH OF GLENPOOL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

THE COMMUNITIES OF TULSA...BIXBY...JENKS...GLENPOOL AND BROKEN ARROW
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM THROUGH 215 AM CDT.

OKZ054>076-080900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
154 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CLEARED A PORTION OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH #294. AREAS CLEARED FROM THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH INCLUDE:

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES...
IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

CRAIG                 DELAWARE              MAYES
NOWATA                OSAGE                 OTTAWA
ROGERS                WASHINGTON

THESE COUNTIES WILL BE INCLUDED IN A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
#295 VALID UNTIL 700 AM CDT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #167 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 400 AM CDT
THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 15 COUNTIES...
IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA:

CHEROKEE              MUSKOGEE              OKFUSKEE
SEQUOYAH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

ADAIR                 CREEK                 OKMULGEE
PAWNEE                TULSA                 WAGONER

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

HASKELL               LATIMER               LE FLORE
MCINTOSH              PITTSBURG

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BRISTOW...BROKEN ARROW...EUFAULA...
MCALESTER...MUSKOGEE...OKEMAH...OKMULGEE...PAWNEE...POTEAU...
SALLISAW...SAND SPRINGS...STIGLER...STILWELL...TAHLEQUAH...TULSA...
WAGONER AND WILBURTON.

ARZ001>002-010-OKZ054>058-061>063-081200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
158 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
#295 UNTIL 700 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN ARKANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES...
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS:

BENTON                CARROLL               MADISON
WASHINGTON

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES...
IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

CRAIG                 DELAWARE              MAYES
NOWATA                OSAGE                 OTTAWA
ROGERS                WASHINGTON

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BARTLESVILLE...BENTONVILLE...
BERRYVILLE...CLAREMORE...EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...
HUNTSVILLE...JAY...MIAMI...NOWATA...PAWHUSKA...PRYOR...ROGERS...
SILOAM SPRINGS...SPRINGDALE AND VINITA.

OKZ061-067-080800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
222 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR ROGERS AND NORTHWEST
   WAGONER COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

AT 222 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES
NORTHWEST OF ONETA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  PEA SIZE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THE COMMUNITIES OF CLAREMORE...CATOOSA...VERDIGRIS...TIAWAH...
FOYIL...BUSHYHEAD AND ONETA WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM THROUGH
300 AM CDT.

ARZ001-010-OKZ069-080815-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
229 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR BENTON...WASHINGTON
   AND NORTHERN ADAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM CDT...

AT 229 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SUMMERS TO 11 MILES WEST OF
WATTS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

THE COMMUNITIES OF BENTONVILLE...SILOAM SPRINGS...ROGERS...SULPHUR
SPRINGS...SPRINGDALE...LINCOLN...AND PRAIRIE GROVE WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 315 AM CDT.

ARZ001-080915-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
320 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR BENTON COUNTY UNTIL 415 AM
   CDT...

AT 320 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GENTRY TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF
CAVE SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE
COMMUNITIES OF BENTONVILLE...ROGERS...GENTRY...PEA RIDGE...
SPRINGTOWN...CAVE SPRINGS...DECATUR AND BELLA VISTA WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 415 AM CDT.