Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KANSAS
228 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
THEN AGAIN IN THE LATE PERIODS.

ENERGETIC SCENARIO PAINTED BY THE 12Z UPPER AIR MAPS TODAY. 130KT
JET CORE WAS ACROSS THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER HEADING NORTHEAST.
STRONG SHORTWAVE AND BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS OVER THIS SAME REGION AT
500MB WITH 70KT JET CORE ON IT SOUTHERN END. WARM AIR TONGUE HAD
POKED INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AT 700MB WHILE 850MB MAP HAD WARM FRONT
JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER WITH 16C DEWPOINTS INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. SURFACE WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA PER
OBS...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP...AND RADAR IMAGERY. MUCH ADVERTISED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS BEGINNING TO BE REALIZED WITH MOST OF
KANSAS IN A TORNADO WATCH AND CELLS BEGINNING TO FIRE AS OF THIS
WRITING. PLEASE SEE OTHER PRODUCTS FROM THIS AND SURROUNDING WFOS
AND SPC CONCERNING CONVECTIVE DETAILS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF STORMS TO BE THE FIRST CHALLENGE TODAY.
DRY AIR PUNCHING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON BUT MAY LINGER
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS HERE PER LATEST RUC. WILL KEEP SEVERE
STORM MENTION THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ALL ZONES.

STRONG UPPER JET TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TODAYS SYSTEM MAY NOT MOVE FAR OFF WITH
A SLIGHT THREAT FOR REDEVELOPMENT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN
THE AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS
NEXT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE WESTERN STATES AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES OVER THE BOUNDARY. UPPER WAVE AND BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVE
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. MOISTURE LOOKS FAIRLY
SHALLOW BUT WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING.

UPPER RIDGING TO TAKE HOLD FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY UNTIL THE NEXT
WESTERN TROF HEADS INLAND WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN
THIS IDEA. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN STILL APPEARS TO BE FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER WARM AIR ADVECTION TYPE SCENARIO
AND THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY.

.TOP...NONE.

65

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-091000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
442 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH POSSIBLE LARGE TORNADOES
IS STILL LIKELY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...CONTINUING DURING THE NIGHT.  LARGE LONG
LIVED TORNADOES...IN SOME PLACES HARD TO OBSERVE...ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE SEVERE STORMS WILL
FORM RAPIDLY AND MOVE EAST OR NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. EMERGENCY MANAGERS...LAW
ENFORCEMENT... MEDIA AND THE PUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR LOCAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS VERY CLOSELY...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...IN SOME COUNTIES
SPOTTERS SHOULD BE ALREDY DEPLOYED AND IN PLACE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
503 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0503 PM    1 W MORROWVILLE           KS    .75 INCH HAIL
05/08/03   WASHINGTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
505 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0504 PM    4 S MORROWVILLE           KS    4.5 INCH HAIL
05/08/03   WASHINGTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
508 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0507 PM    2 NNW WASHINGTON          KS    1 INCH HAIL
05/08/03   WASHINGTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
510 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0504 PM    4 S MORROWVILLE           KS    1.75 INCH HAIL
05/08/03   WASHINGTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
520 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0517 PM    MORROWVILLE               KS    1.75 INCH HAIL
05/08/03   WASHINGTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
523 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0520 PM    HERKIMER                  KS    1 INCH HAIL
05/08/03   MARSHALL