Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KANSAS
228 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
THEN AGAIN IN THE LATE PERIODS.

ENERGETIC SCENARIO PAINTED BY THE 12Z UPPER AIR MAPS TODAY. 130KT
JET CORE WAS ACROSS THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER HEADING NORTHEAST.
STRONG SHORTWAVE AND BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS OVER THIS SAME REGION AT
500MB WITH 70KT JET CORE ON IT SOUTHERN END. WARM AIR TONGUE HAD
POKED INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AT 700MB WHILE 850MB MAP HAD WARM FRONT
JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER WITH 16C DEWPOINTS INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. SURFACE WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA PER
OBS...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP...AND RADAR IMAGERY. MUCH ADVERTISED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS BEGINNING TO BE REALIZED WITH MOST OF
KANSAS IN A TORNADO WATCH AND CELLS BEGINNING TO FIRE AS OF THIS
WRITING. PLEASE SEE OTHER PRODUCTS FROM THIS AND SURROUNDING WFOS
AND SPC CONCERNING CONVECTIVE DETAILS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF STORMS TO BE THE FIRST CHALLENGE TODAY.
DRY AIR PUNCHING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON BUT MAY LINGER
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS HERE PER LATEST RUC. WILL KEEP SEVERE
STORM MENTION THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ALL ZONES.

STRONG UPPER JET TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TODAYS SYSTEM MAY NOT MOVE FAR OFF WITH
A SLIGHT THREAT FOR REDEVELOPMENT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN
THE AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS
NEXT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE WESTERN STATES AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES OVER THE BOUNDARY. UPPER WAVE AND BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVE
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. MOISTURE LOOKS FAIRLY
SHALLOW BUT WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING.

UPPER RIDGING TO TAKE HOLD FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY UNTIL THE NEXT
WESTERN TROF HEADS INLAND WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN
THIS IDEA. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN STILL APPEARS TO BE FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER WARM AIR ADVECTION TYPE SCENARIO
AND THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY.

.TOP...NONE.

65

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-091000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
140 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK APPEARS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LONG LIVED
TORNADOES ARE ALL EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL
KANSAS.  THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD OR DEVELOP EAST DURING THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70...AND WEST OF THE TURNPIKE...THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE BY EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO
BY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOS...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON...ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
929 AM CDT THU MAY 08 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0340 AM    HOPE                      KS    .75 INCH HAIL
05/08/03   DICKINSON

0349 AM    HERINGTON                 KS    1 INCH HAIL
05/08/03   DICKINSON

0412 AM    SOLOMON                   KS    1 INCH HAIL
05/08/03   DICKINSON

0438 AM    CONCORDIA                 KS    .75 INCH HAIL
05/08/03   CLOUD

0452 AM    BUCKEYE                   KS    1 INCH HAIL
05/08/03   DICKINSON

0500 AM    11 E MANCHESTER           KS    .88 INCH HAIL
05/08/03   DICKINSON

0508 AM    1 NE UPLAND               KS    1.75 INCH HAIL
05/08/03   DICKINSON

0517 AM    MILFORD                   KS    1.75 INCH HAIL
05/08/03   GEARY

0529 AM    KEATS                     KS    60 MPH TSTM GUST
05/08/03   RILEY                           NO DAMAGE.

0700 AM    2 S LE ROY                KS    .75 INCH HAIL
05/08/03   COFFEY

0733 AM    5 SW GARNETT              KS    1.75 INCH HAIL
05/08/03   ANDERSON

0738 AM    1 S WELDA                 KS    1.75 INCH HAIL
05/08/03   ANDERSON

0812 AM    2 S LILLIS                KS    .75 INCH HAIL
05/08/03   MARSHALL

0820 AM    4 SW CENTRALIA            KS    .75 INCH HAIL
05/08/03   NEMAHA

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-081600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
945 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE NO LONGER IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
#297...

  REPUBLIC              WASHINGTON            CLOUD
  CLAY                  RILEY

SOME CITIES NO LONGER IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #297...

  MANHATTAN             CLAY CENTER           CONCORDIA

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #297 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

  NEMAHA                MARSHALL              BROWN
  JACKSON               POTTAWATOMIE          JEFFERSON

SOME CITIES STILL IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #297...

  MARYSVILLE            HIAWATHA

KSZ010>012-023-024-026-081615-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1050 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #297 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1100 AM
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

  NEMAHA                MARSHALL              BROWN
  JACKSON               POTTAWATOMIE          JEFFERSON

SOME CITIES NO LONGER IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #297 AFTER
1100 AM...

  MARYSVILLE            HIAWATHA