Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KANSAS
225 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003

RAIN CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING AS DRY
LINE MOVES EAST OF THE CWA.  WRAP-AROUND COLD POOL ALOFT MAY SPARK A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING BUT GENERALLY DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.  COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTH
ON MONDAY...THEN BEGIN ITS TREK BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.  CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE CWA THEN.  HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING
FOR THIS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE
WESTERN U.S.  A SERIES OF VORT LOBES EJECTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL TRIGGER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH
PLAINS.  WITH WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH...PLAINS WILL BE SUPPLIED WITH
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR.  THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANY DAY RIGHT ON THROUGH SUNDAY.  AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...BEST APPROACH NOW APPEARS
TO BE TO SHOTGUN CHANCE POPS FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 AND THEREFORE WAS
DONE.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY WITH CURRENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING EAST.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE UPPER 40S WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
MONDAY MAY HELP TEMPS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA TO TOUCH 80.  WITH ONSET
OF CLOUDS/PRECIP CHANCES BY MID WEEK...WILL TREND TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL.

.TOP...NONE.

62

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-042200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1209 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

....TORNADOES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A SERIOUS WEATHER SITUATION COULD BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS SEVERE STORMS MAY PRODUCE AN OUTBREAK OF
TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY OVER EASTCENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS.

VERY RAPID THUNDERSTORM FORMATION IS EXPECTED BY ABOUT 2 PM. LARGE
HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY EAST...
POSSIBLY AT 30 TO 40 MPH...PRESENTING A DANGEROUS SITUATION WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT, THE
MEDIA AND PUBLIC. KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE TO THE SKY

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS WELL AS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA, KS
242 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0240 PM    WINCHESTER                KS   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   JEFFERSON

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