Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KANSAS
250 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2003

PRECIPITATION CHANCES/THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWING STRONG WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. READY TO EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. PROFILERS SHOWING ELEVATED WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL OK WITH
SFC FRONT FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER. ELEVATED SHOWERS
MOVED EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA EARLIER TODAY...BUT MORE ELEVATED
CONVECTION TRYING TO REDEVELOP FROM CENTRAL KS TO NORTHEAST OK ON
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF MOISTURE AXIS. ALTHOUGH MORE ELEVATED
CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER THE CWA WITH WAA/MOISTURE
ADVECTION...BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATER WHEN DRYLINE
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING (AFTER
BREAKING CAP)...MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT AND IS AIDED BY INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION AS
IT MOVES EAST THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY.

OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY BE EXITING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
EARLY SUNDAY WITH DRYSLOT/LINE ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BY NOON. WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND STRONG WIND
FIELDS/SHEAR ALOFT...AM STILL CONCERNED WITH ADDITIONAL
REDEVELOPMENT ON SVR CONVECTION AROUND MIDDAY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
1/3 OF THE CWA BEFORE IT QUICKLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO MO. WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OVER THE EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES TO
THE MORNING ONLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA. SOUTH...THEN SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE STRONGER SUNDAY WITH THE DRYSLOT AND PROXIMITY TO THE DEEP
SFC LOW OVER NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SPEEDS...AT THIS TIME...TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SHOULD STILL BE IN THE WINDY
CATEGORY WITH STRONGER GUSTS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE LOWER 80S OVER THE EAST AHEAD OF DRYLINE...ONLY ADDING TO
FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON.

DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE
TO EDGE TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON MONDAY...THEN MAINLY
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH DRY FCST AS WELL THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE A STRONGER WAVE MOVES OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY. WILL ADD A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FOR NEXT SATURDAY.

.TOP...NONE.

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-041030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
942 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS DURING EARLY MORNING
HOURS SUNDAY.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY EAST OF A
MARYSVILLE...MANHATTAN...COUNCIL GROVE LINE.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.  THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)