Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
720 PM EST SUN MAR 16 2003

...SHORT TERM...
WILL BE MAKING A QUICK ZONE UPDATE SOON TO REVISE TIMING OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS. WILL ALSO BE ABLE TO REMOVE
AFTERNOON POP WORDING SOON FOR THE INTERIOR. MAIN REASON FOR UPDATE
IS TO TAKE OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT WORDING AS DISTANCE SPEED TOOLS SHOW
THE PRECIP ARRIVING VERY CLOSE TO THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. WITH THE SHIFT
NORTHWARD IN UPPER DISTURBANCE...FORWARD MOTION OF SQUALL LINE
WILL SLOW...BUT PREFER NOT TO GET TOO CUTE WITH THE TIMING.
OTHERWISE...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH END LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT AS MODELS
DOING A DECENT JOB DEPICTING CURRENT RAIN BANDS IN THE GULF. THE
KEY TO RAIN FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST WILL BE THE VORT LOBE EJECTING
OUT OF NORTHERN CUBA AND INTO THE KEYS AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND
MESO-ETA. WATER VAPOR VERIFIES THIS SOLUTION AND CURRENT MOSAIC
RADAR INDICATES A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTION JUST WEST OF THE KEYS. AS
THE PARENT UPPER LOW SWINGS NORTHWARD...THIS PRECIP SHOULD FILL
INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST NICELY ALBEIT WEAKENED FROM THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER SHELF WATERS. MAY NEED ADDITIONAL UPDATE LATER THIS
EVENING TO UP TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE. AS
TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...EXPECT MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH LOW WET BULB ZEROS IN COLD ATMOSPHERE ALOFT...
HAIL WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN THREAT. EXPECT ONLY THE STRONGEST FEW
STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH
STORM CORES TO THE NEEDED 15K TO 20K FEET.

...MARINE...
AGAIN...WILL REVISE WORDING TO ACCOUNT FOR REVISED TIMING OF THE
LINE. OTHERWISE...CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES PLANNED.

.TBW...NONE.

JTD

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-161630-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
530 AM EST SUN MAR 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
SEABREEZES AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR COUNTIES
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OR
POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:

A WEAK SURFACE DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL MAINTAIN
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AND ENDING BY EARLY TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAYS AFTERNOONS
BEFORE BECOMING SCATTERED FRIDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE
REGION.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

RKR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN  FL...CORRECTED
545 PM EST SUN MAR 16 2003

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0537 PM    CYPRESS GARDENS           FL   .75 INCH HAIL
03/16/03   POLK                           REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER.

JTD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN  FL
849 PM EST SUN MAR 16 2003

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0330 PM    RIVERVIEW                 FL   .75 INCH HAIL
03/16/03   HILLSBOROUGH                   REPORTED BY OFF-DUTY NWS
                                          EMPLOYEE.

JCM