Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
140 PM EST MON MAR 17 2003

CURRENTLY...SQUALLINE OVER THE CENT GULF ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW
OVER MS/AL CONTINUES TO MOVE ESE. LATEST TREND SHOWS THAT THE
NORTHERN PART OF LINE IS WEAKENING WHILE THE SOUTHERN END CONTINUE
STRONG OVER THE WARMER LOOP CURRENT. LESS ORGANIZED CONVECTION NOW
DEVELOPING WELL SE OF MAIN LINE OVER THE SE GULF WATERS. BKN CU
DEVELOPING ACROSS LAND PORTION OF FA...EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH
SCT SHOWERS AROUND THE TAMPA BAY REGION...EXPANDING RAPIDLY.

--SHORT TERM (TUES-THURS)--
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF
STATES TODAY WILL WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS NE TONIGHT. EXPECT SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS STILL TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN...ESPEC INTERIOR COUNTIES
DUE TO SW LOW LEVEL FLOW. TONIGHT...WITH LOSS OF UPPER ENERGY AND
HEATING...CONVECTION SHOULD DIE QUICKLY THIS EVENING. WITH LIGHT SW
LOW LEVEL FLOW...MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WILL ABOVE NORM...ESPEC
COASTAL AREAS. COULD SEE NEAR RECORD HIGH MIN LEVELS. TUE...WEAK
UPPER RIDGE FORMS OVER THE FA WITH A DECREASE IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...THEN THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS JUST E OF THE FA WED AND
THURS AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE CENT U.S. CURRENT FCST
HAS ISOLD POPS MAINLY INTERIOR TUE-THURS. STILL DECIDING IF WORTH
KEEPING IN FCST. LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO BE SW TUE THEN...THEN
MORE SOUTHERLY WED AND THURS. THIS SHOULD KEEP RELATIVELY HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE. COOLEST MAXES WILL BE RIGHT AT THE
COAST...ESPEC TUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

--EXTENDED (FRI-MON)--
NEXT WEAK FRONT AND UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRI WITH CHC
POPS. CLEARING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SAT. COULD HAVE SOME LINGERING
PRECIP THREAT EARLY SAT OVER THE S FA. CONTINUED DRY SUN WITH
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...BUT TEMPS WILL PROB STILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORM. MON...ANOTHER UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW TRY TO MOVE INTO THE N GULF. LATEST RUN OF GFS NOW A BIT SLOWER
AND FARTHER N WITH THIS SYSTEM THEN OLD MRF. WILL INTRODUCE CHC
POPS FOR NOW.

--MARINE--
OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF THIS EVENING...NO PROBLEMS
OR HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF WED. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY
INCREASE WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI DUE TO STRENGTHENING GRAD AS SFC
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SE U.S. WILL LIKELY HAVE SCEC CONDITIONS BY
THURS.

PRELIM #S:
BKV 063/084 064/087 1-01
TPA 068/083 068/086 1-01
GIF 065/086 067/088 2102
SRQ 067/084 068/087 1-01
FMY 067/086 069/088 1-11=

.TBW...NONE.

MORALES

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-171700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
553 AM EST MON MAR 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY
INLAND.  LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE MID AND UPPER 90S.  THIS WILL FEEL VERY
WARM CONSIDERING IT IS STILL MID MARCH.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

FLZ050-051-055-060>062-172200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
306 PM EST MON MAR 17 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TAMPA BAY AND SARASOTA
BRADENTON METRO AREAS FOR THE EARLY EVENING COMMUTE...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE COASTLINE FROM PINELLAS
THROUGH CHARLOTTE COUNTIES BETWEEN 330 PM AND 4 PM...AND CONTINUE
MOVING ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST UNTIL 5
PM.

STRONGER STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA FROM SAINT PETERSBURG THROUGH
BRADENTON...SARASOTA...VENICE...NORTH PORT...AND PORT CHARLOTTE.
THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAINS REDUCING VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE...AND
WIND GUSTS OF 30 AND 40 MPH OR MORE.  SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

RESIDENTS...ESPECIALLY MOTORISTS...SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY
DETERIORATING WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  TRAVELERS AND COMMUTERS
MAY WANT TO DELAY TRIPS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

BSG

FLZ050-051-055-060-172115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
331 PM EST MON MAR 17 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SAINT PETERSBURG THROUGH
SARASOTA AND BRADENTON BY 4 PM...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH...WILL AFFECT
VENICE...SARASOTA...PALMETTO...BRADENTON...AND SAINT
PETERSBURG...UNTIL 415 PM EST. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE
LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES
IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF
CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.
THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.
&&
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED BEFORE 415 PM SHOULD
CONDITIONS INTENSIFY.

GOLDSMITH