Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
213 PM EST THU MAR 27 2003

ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS FROM THROUGHOUT THE FA WILL KEEP THIS
DISCUSSION SHORT.

UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL ENEWD FROM THE N CNTRL GOMEX WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS OFF THE NE FL COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. IN THE INTERIM...
ONGOING NUMEROUS SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD BUT WILL
HOLD ONTO SOME LOWER THRESHOLD 30-40 POP INTO THE EVENING HOURS EARLY
TONIGHT UNTIL CONVECTION EXITS AREA. ALSO CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NRN FA...DUE TO THE
UNSTABLE COOL POOL ALOFT CONDITIONS BENEATH THE UPPER LOW AS IT
PROGRESS EWD. OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES LATER NIGHT
...BUT WITH SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG...NOTABLY OVER THE NRN FA.

MUCH IMPROVED CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND NEAR NIL PREMISE FOR PCPN.

EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE APPROACH OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT ACCOMPANNIED WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO PUSH
THROUGH THE PNSULA ON SUNDAY. A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FOR EARLY
SPRING TO FOLLOW THIS FRONT WITH CLEARING SKIES BUT A RETURN OF A
CHILL IN THE AIR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEEK...PARTICULARLY AT
NIGHT. MORE ON THIS IN FUTURE DISCUSSIONS.

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH AND FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE DECREASING TUESDAY.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
BKV UU 060/085 057/085 064 10300
TPA UU 067/084 067/084 068 10300
GIF UU 066/087 065/088 065 10400
SRQ UU 078/067 082/064 082 10200
FMY UU 067/087 066/087 068 10300=

.TBW...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 5PM.

DMR/DN

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-271600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
520 AM EST THU MAR 27 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.

FOR THIS MORNING...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH... ESPECIALLY OVER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS...WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
TODAY AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES. REMEMBER...ALL THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

...MORE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEKEND...

ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG STORMS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS AND
STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS
CONCERNING THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS LATER THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

MORALES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN  FL
154 PM EST THU MAR 27 2003

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1050 AM    2 S PUNTA GORDA           FL   .75 INCH HAIL
03/27/03   CHARLOTTE                      REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.

1217 PM    1 S TEMPLE TERRACE        FL   1.00 INCH HAIL
03/27/03   HILLSBOROUGH                   REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER.

1254 PM    MORRISTON                 FL   WATERSPOUT
03/27/03   LEVY                           REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.

1254 PM    MORRISTON                 FL   .75 INCH HAIL
03/27/03   LEVY                           REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.