Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
922 AM EST THU MAR 27 2003

ACTIVE RADAR OVER MAINLY THE MARINE AREAS THIS MORNING AS PNSULA
APPEARS TO BE ENCIRCLED WITH CONVECTIVE SHWRS/TSTMS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
RENEWED AFTER THE OVERNIGHT AREA OF TSTMS OVER THE ERN GOMEX
DISSIPATED COMING OFF THE GULF LOOP CURRENT INTO A SOMEWHAT MORE
UNFAVORABLE MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE PNSULA AS EVIDENT WITH
THE 12K FT INVERSION ON THE 12Z TBW RAOB.

BUT AS THE UPPER LOW CUTOFF CENTERED OVER THE N CNTRL GOMEX KICKS
OUT ENEWD TDY THRU TNGT INTO THE ATLNTC OFF THE GA COAST BY FRI
MRNG...CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE TO GENERATE
CONSIDERABLE SHWR/TSTM DVELPMT TDY ENDING THIS EVENING. MORNING GOMEX
CONVECTION FURTHER ENHANCED BY MODEL INDICATED PVA AREA SWINGING NEWD
INTO PNSULA. THIS SHOULD FAVOR BEST PCPN CHANCES THRU ERY/MID AFTN
ALONG FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...WITH FAVORED CONVECTION OVER THE
INLAND COUNTIES MID AFTN THRU LATE DAY. SOME STORMS EXPECTED TO
BE POTENT...ESPECIALLY INLAND AREAS AND NRN FA UNDER COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT...WITH CONCERNED POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT FOR HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

ONGOING PACKAGE FOR THE SHORT TERM SEEMS OK BUT WILL EDGE UP TDYS MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGS DUE TO INCREASED SUNSHINE THIS MRNG.

MARINE...WITH TBW 12Z RAOB WINDS OF 20+KTS 1K-3K FT...WILL BUMP UP
SFC WINDS TO 10-15 KTS TDY.

.TBW...NONE.

DMR/DN

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-271600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
520 AM EST THU MAR 27 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.

FOR THIS MORNING...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH... ESPECIALLY OVER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS...WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
TODAY AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES. REMEMBER...ALL THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

...MORE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEKEND...

ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG STORMS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS AND
STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS
CONCERNING THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS LATER THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

MORALES