Alert archive / Florida / Flash Flood Warnings in 2003

Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

June 20, 2003Levy County, Florida

NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued this flash flood warning at Jun 20, 2003, 12:15 PM EDT for Levy County, Florida. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 20, 2003, 12:15 PM EDT (16:15 UTC)
Expired: Jun 20, 2003, 3:00 PM EDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Tampa Bay, FL
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Levy County, FL

The radar

The Jacksonville radar (KJAX), 161 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Jacksonville, FL (KJAX), launched 12:00Z, 4.3 hours before the alert went out and 162 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1003 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -19 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 659 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 62 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 42 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS52 KTBW 201619
FFWTBW
FLC075-201900-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 
1215 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  LEVY COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

  FLOODING WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING CITIES.
  CHIEFLAND.
  BRONSON.
  YANKEETOWN.

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT

* AT 1215 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  RAINFALL RATES OF THREE INCHES PER HOUR.

AT 1215 PM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ALSO REPORTED STREET 
FLOODING WITH ROAD CLOSURES ON HIGHWAY 40 WEST IN YANKEETOWN...OTHER 
LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING WAS REPORTED AS WELL.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND
INTERSECTIONS. POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ARE MOST AT RISK. DO NOT DRIVE 
THROUGH FLOODED ROADS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...
AND SOME COUNTRY ROADS. FARMLAND ALONG STREAM BANKS WILL BE
INUNDATED. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

DONT BECOME A STATISTIC. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN

&&

LAT...LON 2953 8259 2933 8244 2923 8241 2927 8255
          2908 8256 2905 8274 2920 8278 2924 8303
          2957 8294

$$

25

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jun 20, 9:30 AM EDT, 2 hours 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 20, 9:30 AM EDT, 2 hours 45 minutes before

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
0930 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2003

CURRENTLY...CONVECTIVE CELLS TRAINING SW TO NE ACROSS CITRUS COUNTY
WITH VERY LITTLE NORTH TO SOUTH MOVEMENT OF THE AREA. A LARGE AREA
OF RAIN AND EMBD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS APPROACHING
THE COAST...GENERALLY FROM SARASOTA COUNTY NORTHWARD TO PASCO COUNTY.

NOT PLANNING ANY UPDATES TO THE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AS CURRENT
FORECAST OF 80 POPS LOOKS RIGHT ON TARGET. FLOODING PROBLEMS ALREADY
BEGINNING IN CITRUS COUNTY AND EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL FLOODING
TODAY IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE RE-ISSUED LATER TODAY TO EXTEND IT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

MARINE...NOT EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS WITH WINDS OR SEAS...BUT DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE...LEADING TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY HAVE BRIEFLY GUSTY
WINDS WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.

.TBW...FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COUNTIES OF CHARLOTTE...CITRUS...
       HERNANDO...HILLSBOROUGH...LEVY...MANATEE...PASCO...
       PINELLAS...SARASOTA...LEE...THROUGH TODAY.

EJ

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 20, 6:23 AM EDT, 5 hours 52 minutes before

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-201530-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL FL
623 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...A FLOOD WATCH FOR COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...PROVIDING PERIODS OF RAIN WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY MOVING ACROSS MANY OF
THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND ARE EXPECTED INCREASE AND COVER ALL OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BY LATE MORNING.

THE GREATEST THREAT TODAY WILL BE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN FLOOD
PRONE AREAS...WITH RAINFALL THAT COULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 2
TO 4 INCH RANGE. BUT LOCALLY...AMOUNTS COULD POSSIBLY BE AS HIGH
AS 6 TO 10 INCHES.

IN ADDITION...THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSE A THREAT
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIFE THREATENING LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

THE MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA
WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY AND SOME FLOODING
IS STILL POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SCATTERED SUNDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

09

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 20, 7:45 AM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	TBW	Citrus	4 hr
Jun 20, 11:52 AM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	TBW	Citrus	3 hr
Jun 20, 3:00 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	TBW	Citrus, Levy	3 hr
Jun 20, 4:59 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	TBW	Pinellas	31 min
Jun 20, 5:17 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	TBW		43 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Florida, 2003 Every flash flood warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.