Tornado Warning 8, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
234 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2003

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...GFS APPEARS TO BE HAVING PROBLEMS...
TRYING TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE
IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PREFERRED THE ETA/MESOETA SOLUTION. ALL
AREAS WILL BE WET TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN FINALLY SOME DRYING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING SUNDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST FROM GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
EXPECT FLOODING TO CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM UNTIL SUNDAY.

EXTENDED (SUN NIGHT-FRI)...DRY AIR FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH STATE WITH
LOWER POPS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...PROVIDING EASTERLY FLOW
WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS NEAR THE COAST. LOOKS LIKE
ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AT OR JUST BELOW CLIMO
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MARINE...THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN COULD
GENERATE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDS
EXPECTED.

FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
BKV 074/086 073/092 7757
TPA 077/086 076/088 5864
GIF 074/086 074/089 5854
SRQ 076/086 076/088 5854
FMY 076/087 074/088 4877

.TBW...FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COUNTIES OF CHARLOTTE...CITRUS...
       HERNANDO...HILLSBOROUGH...LEVY...MANATEE...PASCO...
       PINELLAS...SARASOTA...LEE...THROUGH SATURDAY.

EJ

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-201530-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL FL
623 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...A FLOOD WATCH FOR COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...PROVIDING PERIODS OF RAIN WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY MOVING ACROSS MANY OF
THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND ARE EXPECTED INCREASE AND COVER ALL OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BY LATE MORNING.

THE GREATEST THREAT TODAY WILL BE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN FLOOD
PRONE AREAS...WITH RAINFALL THAT COULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 2
TO 4 INCH RANGE. BUT LOCALLY...AMOUNTS COULD POSSIBLY BE AS HIGH
AS 6 TO 10 INCHES.

IN ADDITION...THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSE A THREAT
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIFE THREATENING LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

THE MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA
WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY AND SOME FLOODING
IS STILL POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SCATTERED SUNDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

09