Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
310 AM EST MON MAR 17 2003

LOCAL RADARS AT 07Z SHOW A BROAD NW TO SE ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN WITH
A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR ALBANY TO CROSS
CITY. THE RAIN IS LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH WITH THE REMAINDER OF MY
CWA RAIN FREE AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AT NEW ORLEANS RADAR...THE
SURFACE LOW CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN IN THE VICINITY OF BILOXI
MISSISSIPPI WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS MOVING JUST TO THE EAST OF DUE NORTH.

MODELS: NONE OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE SURFACE LOW. AT 06Z THEY ALL SHOW IT TO BE WEAKER AND FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHWEST. 06Z QPF FIELDS FOR ALL MODELS PAINT RAIN ALL ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF. CURRENT RADAR
REPRESENTATION ALONG WITH IR AND WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DRY
SLOT ALREADY WORKING ITS WAY INTO MY FA. THE SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MS AND SOUTHERN
AL AND WEAKEN. REALITY INDICATES THAT THIS SCENARIO HAS ALREADY GOT
A HEAD START. AS A RESULT...I BELIEVE MODEL POPS FOR TODAY WHICH
MOSTLY INDICATE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL ARE OVERDONE. IF WE SEE SOME
SUN TODAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BUT
I DONT HOLD OUT MUCH HOPE FOR THAT HAPPENING. PLAN ON TRIMMING
INHERITED POPS BACK AS MUCH AS 30 TO 40 PERCENT. THIS MAY HAVE A FEW
OF MY COLLEAGUES SEEING RED INSTEAD OF GREEN ON THIS ST PATRICKS
DAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TONIGHT...A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE SOUTHWEST INTENSIFIES AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY 00Z
WED. WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS...TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ALL LOCATIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE WARM MOIST FLOW OFF THE GULF...A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT SO WILL BROAD BRUSH THE
REGION WITH SLIGHT POPS THE NEXT FOUR PERIODS.

MARINE: WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT THE
BUOYS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER THIS MORNING AND
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE FIVE
DAY PERIOD. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT
OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE. STILL EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ON THURSDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

THANKS BHM FOR THE COORDINATION CALL.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
TLH 076/058 082/060 4211
PFN 072/062 079/064 5211
DHN 071/058 080/061 6211
ABY 071/057 080/061 5211
VLD 077/059 082/061 4211
CTY 078/062 082/062 4211

.TLH...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

BARRY

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-181100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
805 AM EST MON MAR 17 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WILL BOTH LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEMS MOVE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE TRI-STATE REGION HIGHLIGHTED WITH A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE RAIN FREE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT...DUE TO
THE LIMITED POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE VIA OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TLH/ OR
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS.

7-TREXLER