Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
145 PM EST MON MAR 17 2003

SURFACE LOW NEAR PNS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NE...WITH WARM FRONT OVER
N FL. WARM SECTOR OVER N FL & THE COASTAL WATERS HAS BEEN THE
LOCATION OF THE MOST INSTABILITY & TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER LOW
WAS OVER CENTRAL MISS. AREA 88D RADARS HAVE AREA OF SHOWERS &
EMBEDDED TSTMS MOVING E-NE...& GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POP IN
FORECAST. AT THIS TIME NO SEVERE STORMS HAVE BEEN DETECTED...BUT SPC
HAS PUT CWA IN SLIGHT RISK REST OF TODAY & TONIGHT. LOOKS TO BE
MARGINAL & COVERAGE WOULD BE LOW WITH LIMITING FACTORS. HAVE
INCREASED EVENING & OVERNIGHT POP TO 30-50% WITH EXPECTED LIFT &
FACTORS AS SURFACE & UPPER LOW LIFT NE ACROSS CWA.

MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON MAIN FEATURES AS
SURFACE LOW & UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE E-NE TONIGHT.
WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS & ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY THIS EVENING...THEN
SMALLER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MID-NIGHT. THEN ON TUESDAY...SOME
DRYING IS SEEN IN MODELS AS MEAN RH GOES TO LESS THAN 50%. RIGHT NOW
HAVE SMALL CHANCE IN ZONES...& MAY TAKE IT OUT. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...SOUTH FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES...BUT ENERGY & LIFT STAY
OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. ON WEDNESDAY...SOME LIFT & INSTABILITY
RETURNS TO THE CWA FOR A SMALL CHANCE AGAIN...BUT MAIN DYNAMICS
FOCUSING OUT WEST WITH THE DEVELOPING UPPER & SURFACE LOW. WE WILL
SEE A GRADUALLY INCREASE IN POP INTO THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES. THEN THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THEN SOME
DRYING INTO SATURDAY. MODEL TEMPS SEEM A BIT TOO WARM WITH EXPECTED
CLOUDS & CHANCES OF RAIN...SO WILL GO LOWER END.

MARINE: WINDS & SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCEC OR SCA. MAY GET CLOSE TO
SCEC LATER TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES NE. THEN IT APPEARS
THEY WILL STAY DOWN UNTIL THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM.

FIRE WEATHER:  RH VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 35% THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
TLH 059 081 060 083 7223
PFN 062 079 064 079 6223
DHN 058 079 061 081 6223
ABY 057 079 061 081 7223
VLD 059 081 061 083 7223
CTY 062 082 062 085 6223

.TLH...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

MCT

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-181100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
805 AM EST MON MAR 17 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WILL BOTH LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEMS MOVE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE TRI-STATE REGION HIGHLIGHTED WITH A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE RAIN FREE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT...DUE TO
THE LIMITED POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE VIA OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TLH/ OR
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS.

7-TREXLER