Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003
Mesoscale Discussion 993
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 15, 2003, 6:52 AM CDT for 74 counties in Kentucky; 12 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 15, 2003, 6:52 AM CDT (11:52 UTC)
- Expired
- May 15, 2003, 9:15 AM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 86 counties
Adair County, KY, Allen County, KY, Barren County, KY, Bell County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Butler County, KY, Caldwell County, KY, Calloway County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Casey County, KY, Christian County, KY, Clay County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Crittenden County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Daviess County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Estill County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Graves County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hancock County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Harlan County, KY, Hart County, KY, Henderson County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Knott County, KY, Knox County, KY, Larue County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Lee County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Letcher County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Livingston County, KY, Logan County, KY, Lyon County, KY, Madison County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Marion County, KY, Marshall County, KY, McCracken County, KY, McCreary County, KY, McLean County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Perry County, KY, Pike County, KY, Powell County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Russell County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Todd County, KY, Trigg County, KY, Union County, KY, Warren County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Webster County, KY, Whitley County, KY, Wolfe County, KY, Campbell County, TN, Clay County, TN, Fentress County, TN, Henry County, TN, Macon County, TN, Montgomery County, TN, Pickett County, TN, Robertson County, TN, Scott County, TN, Stewart County, TN, Sumner County, TN, Trousdale County, TN
The radar
The Louisville radar (KLVX), 97 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 11.9 hours before the alert went out and 117 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 106 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -84 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 724 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 25 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 73 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 113 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
006 ACUS11 KWNS 151153 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151152 KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-151415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0993 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/SRN KY...PARTS OF NRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151152Z - 151415Z AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF A WW LATER THIS MORNING. WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH/EAST OF THE HUNTINGTON WV/LEXINGTON AND LOUISVILLE KY AREAS OVERNIGHT...IN WAKE OF REMNANTS OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW SPREADING INTO WEST VIRGINIA. AIR MASS ALONG/SOUTH OF BOUNDARY...ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS RELATIVELY MOIST AND SUFFICIENT BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER EXIST TO ALLOW QUICK SURFACE HEATING INTO THE 70S BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR AS MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH GRADUALLY ROTATES EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. MODELS SUGGEST CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND FORCING BECOME ENHANCED BY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK...PROGGED TO NOSE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A CARBONDALE IL...HOPKINSVILLE/BOWLING GREEN AXIS BY 18Z. POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASES THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER...WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS INCREASING WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE COLD POOL/MESO HIGH. ..KERR.. 05/15/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... 37898785 37878639 37648526 37788432 38048364 37478225 36588359 36348427 36368624 36398724 36258848 36588960 36938899 37258849
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 8:15 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crittenden, Henderson, Hopkins, Livingston, McLean, Union and 1 more | 60 min |
| May 14, 8:30 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Caldwell, Crittenden, Livingston, Union | 4 hr |
| May 14, 9:24 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Carroll, Henry, Oldham, Trimble | 96 min |
| May 14, 10:10 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ballard, Caldwell, Carlisle, Crittenden, Fulton, Graves and 5 more | 2 hr |
| May 15, 10:15 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Anderson, Bath, Boone, Bourbon, Boyle, Bracken and 53 more | 6 hr |
| May 15, 12:22 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Barren, Bell, Boyle, Breathitt, Casey and 37 more | 53 min |
| May 15, 12:50 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adair, Barren, Bell, Boyle, Breathitt, Casey and 41 more | 5 hr |
| May 15, 2:20 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Bath, Bell and 90 more | 85 min |
| May 15, 4:42 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Caldwell, Calloway, Christian, Graves, Logan and 9 more | 63 min |
| May 15, 5:10 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allen, Christian, Logan, Monroe, Simpson, Todd and 1 more | 6 hr |
| May 15, 11:08 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Carter, Johnson | 2 hr |
| May 15, 3:10 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Carter, Cocke, Greene, Hamblen, Jefferson, Sevier and 2 more | 6 hr |
| May 15, 5:06 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Carter, Cocke, Greene, Hamblen, Jefferson, Sevier and 2 more | 84 min |
| May 15, 6:39 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Sevier | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.