Alert archive / Tennessee / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003
Mesoscale Discussion 931
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 10, 2003, 10:04 PM CDT for 29 counties in Kentucky; 5 counties in Mississippi; 38 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 116 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 10, 2003, 10:04 PM CDT (03:04 UTC)
- Expired
- May 11, 2003, 12:00 AM CDT
- In force
- 116 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 72 counties
Allen County, KY, Barren County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Butler County, KY, Caldwell County, KY, Calloway County, KY, Christian County, KY, Daviess County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hancock County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Hart County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Larue County, KY, Logan County, KY, Lyon County, KY, McLean County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Todd County, KY, Trigg County, KY, Warren County, KY, Webster County, KY, Alcorn County, MS, Benton County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Panola County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Benton County, TN, Carroll County, TN, Cheatham County, TN, Chester County, TN, Clay County, TN, Crockett County, TN, Davidson County, TN, Decatur County, TN, DeKalb County, TN, Dickson County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Hardin County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Henderson County, TN, Henry County, TN, Hickman County, TN, Houston County, TN, Humphreys County, TN, Jackson County, TN, Lewis County, TN, Macon County, TN, Madison County, TN, Maury County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Montgomery County, TN, Perry County, TN, Robertson County, TN, Rutherford County, TN, Smith County, TN, Stewart County, TN, Sumner County, TN, Trousdale County, TN, Wayne County, TN, Weakley County, TN, Williamson County, TN, Wilson County, TN
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 3.1 hours before the alert went out and 118 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1200 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -3 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1378 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 48 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 71 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 123 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.5
- Supercell composite
- 4.2
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
659 ACUS11 KWNS 110304 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110304 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-MSZ000-110500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0931 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1004 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KY...WRN/CNTRL TN THROUGH NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 110304Z - 110500Z TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS WRN/CNTRL TN...WRN/CNTRL KY AND SWD INTO NRN MS. TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR. LATEST VWP DATA FROM NASHVILLE SHOW TREND HAS BEEN FOR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BACK AND INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY DUE TO DEVELOPING SLY LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS IS RESULTING IN VERY LARGE HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-2 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2. MOREOVER...100+ KT MID/UPPER JET ROUNDING BASE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ADVANCING RAPIDLY EWD TOWARD THE TN/OH VALLEYS. THE STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS SUPERCELLS OR POSSIBLY LINES CONTAINING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AS THEY CONTINUE EWD TOWARD THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT OVER THE TN VALLEY. ..DIAL.. 05/11/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... 35508958 37958733 37938523 36058561 34169015
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 7:06 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ballard, Calloway, Carlisle, Crittenden, Fulton, Graves and 5 more | 54 min |
| May 10, 8:28 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Breathitt, Floyd, Johnson, Knott, Magoffin, Martin and 1 more | 62 min |
| May 10, 8:45 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Ballard, Carlisle, Fulton, Graves, Hickman, Livingston and 2 more | 5 hr |
| May 10, 9:10 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Oldham | 5 hr |
| May 10, 11:20 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Adair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Bourbon, Boyle and 38 more | 6 hr |
| May 10, 11:28 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant and 2 more | 2 hr |
| May 11, 1:46 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Barren, Bourbon, Boyle, Breckinridge and 46 more | 89 min |
| May 11, 4:16 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Anderson, Barren, Bath, Bell, Bourbon and 68 more | 59 min |
| May 11, 5:05 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bath, Bell, Bourbon, Boyle, Breathitt, Casey and 38 more | 4 hr |
| May 11, 5:55 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bell, Harlan | 5 hr |
| May 11, 3:10 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Attala, Bolivar, Carroll, Choctaw, Clay, Grenada and 18 more | 95 min |
| May 11, 3:20 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Lowndes | 5 hr |
| May 11, 5:22 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Lowndes | 83 min |
| May 11, 12:20 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Forrest, George, Greene, Hancock, Harrison, Jackson and 7 more | 115 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.