Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 76

February 15, 20036 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 15, 2003, 11:58 AM EST for 6 states. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 15, 2003, 11:58 AM EST (16:58 UTC)
Expired: Feb 15, 2003, 7:00 PM EST
In force: 7 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 124 counties

Sussex County, DE, Boyd County, KY, Carter County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Greenup County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Martin County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Pike County, KY, Calvert County, MD, Charles County, MD, Dorchester County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Somerset County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Wicomico County, MD, Lawrence County, OH, Albemarle County, VA, Alleghany County, VA, Amelia County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Arlington County, VA, Augusta County, VA, Bath County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Bland County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Caroline County, VA, Carroll County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Harrisonburg, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, City of Radford, VA, City of Richmond, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, City of Staunton, VA, City of Waynesboro, VA, Craig County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Cumberland County, VA, Essex County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Giles County, VA, Goochland County, VA, Greene County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Hanover County, VA, Highland County, VA, King and Queen County, VA, King George County, VA, King William County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Madison County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Nelson County, VA, Northumberland County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Orange County, VA, Page County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Richmond County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Rockingham County, VA, Shenandoah County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Tazewell County, VA, Warren County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA, Wythe County, VA, Boone County, WV, Braxton County, WV, Cabell County, WV, Clay County, WV, Fayette County, WV, Greenbrier County, WV, Hardy County, WV, Kanawha County, WV, Lincoln County, WV, Logan County, WV, McDowell County, WV, Mercer County, WV, Mingo County, WV, Monroe County, WV, Nicholas County, WV, Pendleton County, WV, Pocahontas County, WV, Putnam County, WV, Raleigh County, WV, Randolph County, WV, Roane County, WV, Summers County, WV, Upshur County, WV, Wayne County, WV, Webster County, WV, Wyoming County, WV

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 155 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 5.0 hours before the alert went out and 106 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 534 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 87 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 170 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 247 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

635 
ACUS11 KWNS 151659
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151658 
KYZ000-OHZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-160000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0076
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 AM CST SAT FEB 15 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN KY...MUCH OF WV AND VA...SRN MD AND
DE

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 151658Z - 160000Z

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET OVER ERN WV
AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WRN VA.  FREEZING RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT
ICE ACCUMULATIONS IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY OVER ERN KY...WRN AND
SRN WV.



LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MOVING SWD ALONG THE VA/WV BORDER...WITH HRLY PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 1 MB.  12Z IAD SOUNDING SHOWS RELATIVELY WARM SNOW
PROFILE...WHILE RNK WAS ALL RAIN WITH DEEP LAYER ABOVE FREEZING. 
COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO UNDERCUT WARM AIR FURTHER
SOUTH AND INITIALLY PRODUCE FREEZING RAIN.  BACKED WINDS AS SEEN
ON AREA VWPS SUGGEST THAT COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE IN A DEEP ENOUGH
LAYER SO THAT THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SLEET OCCURS WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE FREEZING RAIN.  THIS IS WHAT THE 12Z ETA MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AS WELL.  IT IS LIKELY THAT SHALLOW POCKETS OF
BELOW FREEZING AIR WILL DEVELOP WITH SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS...NAMELY PORTIONS OF SWRN WV AND ERN
KY...AS FREEZING LINE IS VERY NEAR TO THE NORTH AT THIS TIME AND
WILL REMAIN SHALLOW.

..JEWELL.. 02/15/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

38938029 39087874 39037702 38877638 38867528 38377517
37997570 37787667 37477747 36827847 36537912 36748083
37368219 37858337 38348340 38618302 38658211

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 14, 10:18 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allen, Athens, Auglaize, Belmont, Champaign, Clark and 39 more	6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.