Alert archive / Iowa / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 69

February 14, 20037 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 14, 2003, 9:18 PM CST for 7 states. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 14, 2003, 9:18 PM CST (03:18 UTC)
Expired: Feb 15, 2003, 3:15 AM CST
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 170 counties

Adair County, IA, Adams County, IA, Audubon County, IA, Boone County, IA, Carroll County, IA, Cass County, IA, Cedar County, IA, Clarke County, IA, Clinton County, IA, Dallas County, IA, Decatur County, IA, Des Moines County, IA, Fremont County, IA, Greene County, IA, Guthrie County, IA, Harrison County, IA, Henry County, IA, Iowa County, IA, Jasper County, IA, Jefferson County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Keokuk County, IA, Louisa County, IA, Lucas County, IA, Madison County, IA, Mahaska County, IA, Marion County, IA, Marshall County, IA, Mills County, IA, Monroe County, IA, Montgomery County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Page County, IA, Polk County, IA, Pottawattamie County, IA, Poweshiek County, IA, Ringgold County, IA, Scott County, IA, Shelby County, IA, Story County, IA, Tama County, IA, Taylor County, IA, Union County, IA, Wapello County, IA, Warren County, IA, Washington County, IA, Bureau County, IL, Grundy County, IL, Henry County, IL, Iroquois County, IL, Kankakee County, IL, Kendall County, IL, Knox County, IL, LaSalle County, IL, Lee County, IL, Livingston County, IL, Marshall County, IL, Mercer County, IL, Putnam County, IL, Rock Island County, IL, Stark County, IL, Warren County, IL, Whiteside County, IL, Will County, IL, Woodford County, IL, Adams County, IN, Allen County, IN, Benton County, IN, Blackford County, IN, Carroll County, IN, Cass County, IN, Clinton County, IN, Delaware County, IN, Fulton County, IN, Grant County, IN, Howard County, IN, Huntington County, IN, Jasper County, IN, Jay County, IN, Kosciusko County, IN, Lake County, IN, LaPorte County, IN, Madison County, IN, Marshall County, IN, Miami County, IN, Newton County, IN, Porter County, IN, Pulaski County, IN, Randolph County, IN, Starke County, IN, Tippecanoe County, IN, Tipton County, IN, Wabash County, IN, Wayne County, IN, Wells County, IN, White County, IN, Whitley County, IN, Cass County, NE, Dodge County, NE, Douglas County, NE, Lancaster County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Sarpy County, NE, Saunders County, NE, Washington County, NE, Allen County, OH, Athens County, OH, Auglaize County, OH, Belmont County, OH, Champaign County, OH, Clark County, OH, Coshocton County, OH, Crawford County, OH, Darke County, OH, Delaware County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Franklin County, OH, Greene County, OH, Guernsey County, OH, Hancock County, OH, Hardin County, OH, Harrison County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Holmes County, OH, Knox County, OH, Licking County, OH, Logan County, OH, Madison County, OH, Marion County, OH, Mercer County, OH, Miami County, OH, Monroe County, OH, Montgomery County, OH, Morgan County, OH, Morrow County, OH, Muskingum County, OH, Noble County, OH, Paulding County, OH, Perry County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Putnam County, OH, Richland County, OH, Shelby County, OH, Tuscarawas County, OH, Union County, OH, Van Wert County, OH, Vinton County, OH, Washington County, OH, Wyandot County, OH, Greene County, PA, Barbour County, WV, Doddridge County, WV, Gilmer County, WV, Harrison County, WV, Lewis County, WV, Marion County, WV, Marshall County, WV, Monongalia County, WV, Ohio County, WV, Pleasants County, WV, Preston County, WV, Ritchie County, WV, Taylor County, WV, Tucker County, WV, Tyler County, WV, Upshur County, WV, Wetzel County, WV, Wirt County, WV, Wood County, WV

The radar

The Lincoln radar (KILX), 102 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 00:00Z, 3.3 hours before the alert went out and 62 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 432 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 67 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 162 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 387 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

130 
ACUS11 KWNS 150319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150318 
NEZ000-IAZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-OHZ000-WVZ000-PAZ000-150915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0069
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0918 PM CST FRI FEB 14 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NE...SRN IA...NRN IL...NRN IN...CNTRL
OH...NRN WV...SWRN PA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET 

VALID 150318Z - 150915Z

SNOWFALL RATES FROM 1 IN/HR OR GREATER ARE LIKELY FROM EXTREME
ERN NE...EWD THRU SRN IA...NRN IL...NRN IN...CNTRL OH...INTO NWRN
WV/SWRN PA THRU 16/09Z. SOME SLEET WILL BE MIXED IN ALONG THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL AXIS.



16/00Z ANALYSES INDICATE 700MB LOW CNTR SOUTH OF SUX WHILE 500 MB
MEAN TROUGH AXIS LIES FURTHER WEST FROM NCNTRL NEB...SSWWD INTO
SWRN KS/NWRN OK. THE LOW CNTR AT 850 MB LEVEL IS LOCATED NORTH OF
KANSAS CITY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD THRU NRN MO...CNTRL
IL...INTO SRN IN...INTO EXTREME NRN KY. SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW
MUCH DRIER AIR IN MUCH OF WI/MI WITH STRENGTHENING ENELY WIND
REGIME AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND
SRN PLAINS SFC LOW INCREASES. 



AS 700 MB LOW CNTR MOVES FROM ERN NEB INTO NWRN MO BY
16/12Z...650MB-750MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS PROGGED TO INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE 16/00Z 850 MB BOUNDARY.
STRONG CONFLUENCE OF MID-UPPER LVL FLOW ALONG WITH THE STRONG
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN THE REGION WILL HELP FURTHER STRENGTHEN
THE FORCING THRU THE EXPIRATION TIME. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AXIS
IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM SERN IA...EWD THRU NCNTRL IL...INTO
NCNTRL IN AND SCNTRL OH.

..NADEN.. 02/15/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

40489542 40449606 40919698 41579688 42169494 42029064
41978961 41788826 41678684 41388537 40908294 40588153
40068001 39717923 38957951 38778046 39278277 39768457
40178632 40508759 40828955 40859128 40839270 40719385

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 15, 10:58 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Lawrence	7 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.