Alert archive / Tennessee / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 739

May 4, 20035 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 4, 2003, 5:01 PM CDT for 5 states. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 4, 2003, 5:01 PM CDT (22:01 UTC)
Expired
May 4, 2003, 8:00 PM CDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 70 counties

Clay County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Greene County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Lee County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Calloway County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Graves County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Butler County, MO, Dunklin County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Alcorn County, MS, Benton County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Itawamba County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Lee County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Panola County, MS, Pontotoc County, MS, Prentiss County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tishomingo County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Union County, MS, Benton County, TN, Carroll County, TN, Cheatham County, TN, Chester County, TN, Crockett County, TN, Decatur County, TN, Dickson County, TN, Dyer County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Hardin County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Henderson County, TN, Henry County, TN, Hickman County, TN, Houston County, TN, Humphreys County, TN, Lake County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Lewis County, TN, Madison County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Montgomery County, TN, Obion County, TN, Perry County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Stewart County, TN, Tipton County, TN, Wayne County, TN, Weakley County, TN

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 125 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2003-05-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 286 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2003-05-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 319 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
286 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-267 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
858 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
51 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
319 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
474 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

537 
ACUS11 KWNS 042202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042201 
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-050100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0739
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...WRN TN...NRN MS...NWRN AL...SWRN KY INTO
MO BOOTHEEL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 042201Z - 050100Z

WE ARE MONITORING THE AREA FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.  A TORNADO
WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT OVER WRN KY EXTENDING WWD INTO
EXTREME SERN MO.  THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD.  MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXISTS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J/KG.  20Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWS DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE CIN DISTRIBUTED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER.  WIND
PROFILES OVER THE AREA ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  HIGH RH
LEVELS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR
VECTORS SUGGEST A RELATIVELY HIGH PROBABILITY OF TORNADOES WITH ANY
SUPERCELLS THAT FORM.

LATEST RUC MODEL DEVELOPS PRECIPITATION BY 00Z OVER WRN TN AND ERN
AR.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  HIGH LFC
HEIGHTS INITIALLY COULD RETARD DEVELOPMENT UNTIL EVENING HOWEVER.

..JEWELL.. 05/04/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...

36569089 37038994 36548702 36148683 34868770 33918872
34579163

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 4, 12:35 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBenton, Crawford, Sebastian, Washington6 hr
May 4, 3:05 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton115 min
May 4, 5:20 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Cleburne, Conway and 21 more55 min
May 4, 6:05 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Cleburne, Conway and 29 more7 hr
May 4, 6:55 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCClay, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Greene, Jackson and 9 more6 hr
May 4, 12:44 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarren, Breckinridge, Butler, Caldwell, Christian, Daviess and 15 more3 hr
May 3, 7:19 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAmite, Covington, Forrest, Franklin, George, Greene and 14 more116 min
May 4, 12:02 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlcorn, Benton, Calhoun, Chickasaw, Choctaw, Clay and 26 more2 hr
May 3, 11:46 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrew, Atchison, Barton, Bates, Benton, Buchanan and 30 more59 min
May 4, 12:10 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAndrew, Atchison, Bates, Buchanan, Caldwell, Cass and 15 more6 hr
May 4, 2:58 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Andrew, Atchison, Audrain, Bates, Benton and 45 more92 min
May 4, 4:50 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdair, Andrew, Atchison, Audrain, Bates, Benton and 73 more6 hr
May 4, 7:43 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Andrew, Atchison, Audrain, Benton, Boone and 59 more2 hr
May 4, 12:14 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrew, Atchison, Buchanan, Clinton, DeKalb, Gentry and 4 more2 hr
May 4, 12:45 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAndrew, Atchison, Bates, Benton, Buchanan, Caldwell and 16 more6 hr
May 4, 2:22 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrew, Atchison, Buchanan, Holt, Nodaway, Platte113 min
May 4, 3:56 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Chariton, Grundy, Harrison, Linn, Livingston and 6 more2 hr
May 4, 4:28 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBuchanan, Caldwell, Clay, Clinton, DeKalb, Jackson and 3 more62 min
May 4, 4:43 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarton, Bates, Cedar, Dade, Jasper, Newton and 2 more2 hr
May 4, 5:25 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdair, Audrain, Bollinger, Callaway, Cape Girardeau, Clark and 28 more6 hr
May 4, 6:20 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAndrew, Bates, Benton, Boone, Buchanan, Caldwell and 34 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.