Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 730

May 4, 200321 counties in Kentucky

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 4, 2003, 12:44 PM CDT for 21 counties in Kentucky. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 4, 2003, 12:44 PM CDT (17:44 UTC)
Expired
May 4, 2003, 3:45 PM CDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 21 counties

Barren County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Butler County, KY, Caldwell County, KY, Christian County, KY, Daviess County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Hart County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Larue County, KY, Logan County, KY, McLean County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Todd County, KY, Warren County, KY

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 5.7 hours before the alert went out and 125 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2003-05-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2003-05-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -87 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1206 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-87 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
46 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

926 
ACUS11 KWNS 041745
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041744 
KYZ000-INZ000-042045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0730
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 041744Z - 042045Z

POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST AND SLOWLY DEVELOP EASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THREAT APPEARS ISOLATED ENOUGH THAT WW IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

PERSISTENT BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION IN BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTHEAST OF SURFACE WARM FRONT IS
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH ACTIVITY AIDED BY
DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME BENEATH SHORT WAVE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OF
TROUGH MIGRATING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS NEAR PADUCAH...ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF CAPPING SUBTROPICAL
UPPER RIDGE...WHERE LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INFLUX
ARE ENHANCED ON NOSE OF 700 MB JET.  ACTIVITY APPEARS BASED IN THE
850 MB AND 700 MB LAYER...WITH CAPE FOR LIFTED PARCELS APPARENTLY A
BIT GREATER THAN THAT PROGGED IN MODEL POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...
AND SHOULD SHIFT WITH STRONGER FORCING/DESTABILIZATION ALONG/SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

..KERR.. 05/04/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...

37028789 37418789 37748723 38008591 37588526 36908552
36688664 36688778

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 4, 5:01 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalloway, Carlisle, Fulton, Graves, Hickman3 hr
May 4, 6:55 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBallard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Christian, Fulton and 7 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.