Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003
Mesoscale Discussion 730
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 4, 2003, 12:44 PM CDT for 21 counties in Kentucky. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 4, 2003, 12:44 PM CDT (17:44 UTC)
- Expired
- May 4, 2003, 3:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 21 counties
Barren County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Butler County, KY, Caldwell County, KY, Christian County, KY, Daviess County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Hart County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Larue County, KY, Logan County, KY, McLean County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Todd County, KY, Warren County, KY
The nearest sounding before it
Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 5.7 hours before the alert went out and 125 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1206 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 49 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -87 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 46 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
926 ACUS11 KWNS 041745 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041744 KYZ000-INZ000-042045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0730 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041744Z - 042045Z POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST AND SLOWLY DEVELOP EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THREAT APPEARS ISOLATED ENOUGH THAT WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. PERSISTENT BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTHEAST OF SURFACE WARM FRONT IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH ACTIVITY AIDED BY DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME BENEATH SHORT WAVE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGH MIGRATING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR PADUCAH...ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF CAPPING SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE...WHERE LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INFLUX ARE ENHANCED ON NOSE OF 700 MB JET. ACTIVITY APPEARS BASED IN THE 850 MB AND 700 MB LAYER...WITH CAPE FOR LIFTED PARCELS APPARENTLY A BIT GREATER THAN THAT PROGGED IN MODEL POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS... AND SHOULD SHIFT WITH STRONGER FORCING/DESTABILIZATION ALONG/SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY LATE AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 05/04/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH... 37028789 37418789 37748723 38008591 37588526 36908552 36688664 36688778
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 4, 5:01 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Calloway, Carlisle, Fulton, Graves, Hickman | 3 hr |
| May 4, 6:55 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Ballard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Christian, Fulton and 7 more | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.