Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003
Mesoscale Discussion 7
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 1, 2003, 12:02 PM EST for 24 counties in New York; 7 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 1, 2003, 12:02 PM EST (17:02 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 1, 2003, 6:30 PM EST
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 31 counties
Allegany County, NY, Broome County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Madison County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Wyoming County, NY, Yates County, NY, Bradford County, PA, Erie County, PA, McKean County, PA, Potter County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Warren County, PA
The radar
The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 5.0 hours before the alert went out and 165 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 815 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 36 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 7 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 48 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
204 ACUS11 KWNS 011703 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011702 PAZ000-NYZ000-012330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0007 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 AM CST WED JAN 01 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN PA...SRN NY CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET VALID 011702Z - 012330Z POCKETS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER NRN PA AND SRN NY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FZRA WILL CHANGE TO SLEET BY ABOUT 00Z AND THEN TO SNOW AFTER THAT. 17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A FEW STATIONS BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER...INCLUDING BFD...JHW...ELZ...AND BGM. TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEADY AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES EWD...LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CEASE AS WINDS BACK AND BRING IN COLDER AIR. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF FZRA AND SLEET BETWEEN 22-00Z OVER SRN/CENTRAL NY AND NRN PA TO MAINLY SNOW AFTER 03Z. ..JEWELL.. 01/01/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... 41617584 41617631 41597837 42048035 42587922 43277902 43257760 42997521 42807486 42047484 41677542
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 7:58 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Lawrence, Mercer | 4 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.