Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 7

January 1, 200324 counties in New York; 7 counties in Pennsylvania

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 1, 2003, 12:02 PM EST for 24 counties in New York; 7 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 1, 2003, 12:02 PM EST (17:02 UTC)
Expired
Jan 1, 2003, 6:30 PM EST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 31 counties

Allegany County, NY, Broome County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Madison County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Wyoming County, NY, Yates County, NY, Bradford County, PA, Erie County, PA, McKean County, PA, Potter County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Warren County, PA

The radar

The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 5.0 hours before the alert went out and 165 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2003-01-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2003-01-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 7 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
815 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
7 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
48 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

204 
ACUS11 KWNS 011703
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011702 
PAZ000-NYZ000-012330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0007
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1102 AM CST WED JAN 01 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN PA...SRN NY

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET

VALID 011702Z - 012330Z

POCKETS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER NRN
PA AND SRN NY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  FZRA WILL CHANGE TO SLEET
BY ABOUT 00Z AND THEN TO SNOW AFTER THAT.


17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A FEW STATIONS BELOW FREEZING ALONG
THE PA/NY BORDER...INCLUDING BFD...JHW...ELZ...AND BGM.
TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEADY AS
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN.
AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES EWD...LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CEASE AS WINDS BACK AND BRING IN COLDER AIR.
PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF FZRA AND SLEET
BETWEEN 22-00Z OVER SRN/CENTRAL NY AND NRN PA TO MAINLY SNOW
AFTER 03Z.

..JEWELL.. 01/01/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

41617584 41617631 41597837 42048035 42587922 43277902
43257760 42997521 42807486 42047484 41677542

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 1, 7:58 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLawrence, Mercer4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.