Alert archive / Ohio / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 5

January 1, 200320 counties in Ohio; Lawrence County, Mercer County, Pennsylvania

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 1, 2003, 7:58 AM EST for 20 counties in Ohio; Lawrence County, Mercer County, Pennsylvania. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 1, 2003, 7:58 AM EST (12:58 UTC)
Expired
Jan 1, 2003, 12:00 PM EST
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 22 counties

Ashland County, OH, Carroll County, OH, Columbiana County, OH, Coshocton County, OH, Crawford County, OH, Delaware County, OH, Geauga County, OH, Holmes County, OH, Knox County, OH, Mahoning County, OH, Marion County, OH, Medina County, OH, Morrow County, OH, Portage County, OH, Richland County, OH, Stark County, OH, Summit County, OH, Trumbull County, OH, Tuscarawas County, OH, Wayne County, OH, Lawrence County, PA, Mercer County, PA

The radar

The Cleveland radar (KCLE), 58 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Pittsburgh, PA (KPIT), launched 12:00Z, 1.0 hours before the alert went out and 143 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Pittsburgh, PA at 12:00Z on 2003-01-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Pittsburgh, PA at 12:00Z on 2003-01-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 82 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
612 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
40 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
82 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
132 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

079 
ACUS11 KWNS 011258
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011258 
OHZ000-PAZ000-011700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0005
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST WED JAN 01 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE OH AND PARTS OF NW PA

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 011258Z - 011700Z

FREEZING RAIN RATES ARE INCREASING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.  1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH OF GLAZE APPEARS LIKELY IN
AREAS SOUTHWEST THROUGH EAST OF CLEVELAND OH.


AS CLOSED LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF STATES INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...TIGHTENING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO NORTHWARD
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION BAND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.  BAND
HAS SHIFTED INTO AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL INDIANA/NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...WHERE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF RAIN IS SLOWLY COOLING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING.  WITH CONTINUED SATURATION OF
BOUNDARY LAYER...FREEZING RAIN RATES WILL INCREASE...POSSIBLY IN
EXCESS OF .05 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES.  WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF INTENSE 250 MB JET STREAK OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
ENHANCING LARGE-SCALE FORCING...STRONGEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FIELD WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT ALONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE MOST SIGNIFICANT ICING WILL OCCUR THROUGH
18Z.

..KERR.. 01/01/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

41428145 41638078 41758012 40898009 40388125 40198220
40148294 40398334 40948291

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 1, 12:02 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBradford, Erie, McKean, Potter, Susquehanna, Tioga and 1 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.