Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 678

May 2, 200314 counties in Arkansas; 8 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 2, 2003, 1:27 AM CDT for 14 counties in Arkansas; 8 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 2, 2003, 1:27 AM CDT (06:27 UTC)
Expired: May 2, 2003, 3:30 AM CDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 22 counties

Baxter County, AR, Boone County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Clay County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Greene County, AR, Izard County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Marion County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Stone County, AR, Butler County, MO, Carter County, MO, Dunklin County, MO, Howell County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Taney County, MO

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 155 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 165 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1247 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -23 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 891 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 55 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 177 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.8
Supercell composite: 4.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

037 
ACUS11 KWNS 020628
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020627 
MOZ000-ARZ000-020830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0678
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 AM CDT FRI MAY 02 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL AND NERN AR / EXTREME S CENTRAL AND SERN
MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 020627Z - 020830Z

SCATTERED / SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS N CENTRAL / NERN AR AND ADJACENT S CENTRAL / SERN MO.
 MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...
BUT LIMITED THREAT SUGGESTS WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW ACROSS W CENTRAL AR...WITH 
BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS NERN AR INTO SERN MO / SRN IL. 
MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS ABOVE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS
ACROSS THE AREA...AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALONG NRN FRINGE OF SWLY
LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. 
WEAKLY-VEERING DEEP-LAYER WINDS AND 30 TO 40 KTS MID-LEVEL FLOW
SUGGEST SUFFICIENT SHEAR EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING UPDRAFTS
AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL.  HOWEVER...WEAK
FORCING AND LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND VEER TO
WLY WITH TIME SHOULD KEEP THREAT LIMITED.

..GOSS.. 05/02/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

36259381 36649322 37149165 36939031 36078994 35689054
35849238 35989324

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 1, 8:54 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Benton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Hempstead, Howard and 10 more	96 min
May 1, 9:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Clark, Columbia, Garland, Hempstead, Hot Spring, Howard and 10 more	4 hr
May 1, 11:53 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clark, Columbia, Garland, Hempstead, Hot Spring, Howard and 10 more	67 min
May 2, 2:21 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Ashley, Bradley, Chicot, Columbia, Desha, Drew and 1 more	114 min
May 2, 2:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 13 more	6 hr
May 2, 6:31 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 11 more	119 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.