Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 677

May 1, 200316 counties in Arkansas; 4 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 1, 2003, 11:53 PM CDT for 16 counties in Arkansas; 4 counties in Texas. It was in force for 67 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 1, 2003, 11:53 PM CDT (04:53 UTC)
Expired: May 2, 2003, 1:00 AM CDT
In force: 67 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Clark County, AR, Columbia County, AR, Garland County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Howard County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Little River County, AR, Miller County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Nevada County, AR, Pike County, AR, Polk County, AR, Saline County, AR, Scott County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Bowie County, TX, Cass County, TX, Morris County, TX, Titus County, TX

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 159 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Shreveport, LA (KSHV), launched 00:00Z, 4.9 hours before the alert went out and 160 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 3075 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -44 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 926 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 29 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 57 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.0
Supercell composite: 5.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

920 
ACUS11 KWNS 020453
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020453 
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-020600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0677
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AR/NERN TX/FAR SERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 205...

VALID 020453Z - 020600Z

LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SERN OK WITH
AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT THAT ARCS NEWD TO NEAR HOT AND THEN BACK
SEWD INTO NWRN MS. A TROUGH/WIND SHIFT THEN EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SWD
INTO NERN TX. AN AXIS OF HIGH THETA-E AIR /350-355K/ REMAINS IN
PLACE SE OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS EXTREME NERN TX INTO SWRN AR WITH
MLCAPES STILL AROUND 2500-3000 J/KG. ELY/SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
BENEATH 35-40KT FLOW AT 500MB IS RESULTING IN 40-45KTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
TSTMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER CLARK COUNTY AR
WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT
MOVES SEWD AT AROUND 20KTS. LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE
OVER FAR SERN OK/SWRN AR WHERE TSTMS ARE TRYING TO ORGANIZE.

A NEW WW MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED AT 06Z TO REPLACE CURRENT WW.


..MEAD.. 05/02/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...

33719486 34099463 34629437 34839428 34849428 34889396
34809344 34869292 34849252 34819233 34669238 33979280
33439298 33229315 33039325 33039325 33079341 33079423
33039469 33069498 33049510 33099510 33329501

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 1, 8:54 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Benton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Hempstead, Howard and 10 more	96 min
May 1, 9:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Clark, Columbia, Garland, Hempstead, Hot Spring, Howard and 10 more	4 hr
May 2, 1:27 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baxter, Boone, Carroll, Clay, Craighead, Fulton and 8 more	2 hr
May 2, 2:21 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Ashley, Bradley, Chicot, Columbia, Desha, Drew and 1 more	114 min
May 2, 2:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 13 more	6 hr
May 2, 6:31 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 11 more	119 min
May 1, 7:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Brown, Burnet, Comanche and 29 more	5 hr
May 1, 10:10 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anderson, Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Brown, Burnet and 30 more	95 min
May 1, 11:19 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Austin, Brazoria, Brazos, Burleson, Colorado, Fort Bend and 14 more	86 min
May 1, 11:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris and 4 more	4 hr
May 2, 2:25 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bosque, Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Comanche and 21 more	2 hr
May 2, 2:45 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crockett and 20 more	6 hr
May 2, 4:28 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anderson, Bell, Bosque, Cherokee, Coryell, Dallas and 30 more	2 hr
May 2, 4:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Anderson, Bell, Bosque, Brown, Burnet, Cass and 32 more	5 hr
May 2, 5:57 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Comanche, Concho and 12 more	2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.