Mesoscale Discussion 666

Issued

May 1, 2003, 2:33 PM CDT (19:33 UTC)

Expired

May 1, 2003, 4:30 PM CDT

In force

117 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 78 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Tornado Watch 200May 1, 2:55 PM CDT

054 
ACUS11 KWNS 011934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011933 
TXZ000-012130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0666
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 011933Z - 012130Z

RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR IN CNTRL AND NE TX
BY 22Z. THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. WW WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM ARDMORE OK SW TO NEAR ABILENE TX AT
19Z. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAD INCREASED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. CU WAS DEVELOPING BUT A CAP
REMAINED IN PLACE WITH THE FWD ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE 2.0 C
DEGREE CAP ERODING FROM 17Z TO 19Z. STRONG SFC HEATING AND SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F WERE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF
4000-4500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS ADEQUATE FOR STORMS
ORGANIZATION WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT OVER MUCH OF CNTRL TX
AND 35 KT OVER NERN TX. AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE FRONT AND
THE CAP WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD INITIATE WITH
ROTATING STORMS LIKELY. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS NERN
TX...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 45 KT COUPLED WITH THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY MAKING THE ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS. THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL MAKE CONDITIONS RIGHT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

..BROYLES.. 05/01/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...SJT...

30910055 31849919 33089666 33259584 33239488 33029452
32639460 32289512 31849604 31429687 31059757 30569864
30239958

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.