Mesoscale Discussion 657

Issued

May 1, 2003, 2:27 AM CDT (07:27 UTC)

Expired

May 1, 2003, 4:30 AM CDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 134 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

997 
ACUS11 KWNS 010727
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010727 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-010930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0657
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT THU MAY 01 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...SERN KS....SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 192...193...

VALID 010727Z - 010930Z

PARTS OF SWRN MO...CURRENTLY COVERED BY WW 192...MAY NEED TO BE
PLACED INTO ANOTHER SEVERE TSTM WATCH THIS MORNING.

LARGE MCS COMPOSED OF NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF MULTICELL STORMS
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SERN KS...EXTREME NERN
OK...AND SWRN MO EARLY TODAY. THIS AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS MIDLEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SPREADS EWD ATOP TRAILING PORTION OF PLAINS SYNOPTIC
FRONTAL ZONE AND ACTS ON STRONG INSTABILITY. AS LOW LEVEL JET
IMPINGES ON THE DEEPENING MESOSCALE COLD POOL FROM NERN OK INTO SWRN
MO EXPECT WEAK CAP AND ABUNDANT INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS SPREADING ESEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS THROUGH 12Z. WHILE
LOW LEVEL TURNING OF THE WIND FIELD NEAR THE OUTFLOW REINFORCED
FRONT SUPPORTS HIGHER SRH AND POTENTIAL FOR LOWER LEVEL UPDRAFT
ROTATION/SUPERCELLS...IT APPEARS THAT SHEAR FROM THE UPDRAFT SOURCE
REGION...850-800MB...THROUGH 6KM WAS GENERALLY UNDER 30KT.
THUS...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MULTICELLULAR
WITH ISOLD HAIL/WIND DAMAGE MOST LIKELY FROM STORMS IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE KS/OK
BORDER ENEWD INTO SWRN MO. IN ADDITION...TENDENCY FOR UPDRAFTS TO
BACKBUILD INTO THE LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSED INTO EXTREME SERN KS INTO
SWRN MO COULD RESULT IN PROLONGED PERIOD OF  VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

..CARBIN.. 05/01/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

36439445 36289533 36409649 36939731 37639700 38379611
38509488 38349292 37919256 36689258

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.