Alert archive / Nebraska / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 618

April 29, 20038 counties in Kansas; 25 counties in Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 29, 2003, 2:15 AM CDT for 8 counties in Kansas; 25 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 29, 2003, 2:15 AM CDT (07:15 UTC)
Expired: Apr 29, 2003, 5:15 AM CDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 33 counties

Decatur County, KS, Jewell County, KS, Norton County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Rawlins County, KS, Republic County, KS, Smith County, KS, Washington County, KS, Adams County, NE, Buffalo County, NE, Clay County, NE, Dawson County, NE, Dundy County, NE, Fillmore County, NE, Franklin County, NE, Frontier County, NE, Furnas County, NE, Gosper County, NE, Hall County, NE, Hamilton County, NE, Harlan County, NE, Hayes County, NE, Hitchcock County, NE, Jefferson County, NE, Kearney County, NE, Merrick County, NE, Nuckolls County, NE, Phelps County, NE, Red Willow County, NE, Saline County, NE, Thayer County, NE, Webster County, NE, York County, NE

The radar

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 53 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE (KLBF), launched 00:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 160 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1547 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 34 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 260 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 290716
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290715 
KSZ000-NEZ000-291015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0618
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KS/SRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 290715Z - 291015Z

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE KS/NEB
BORDER THROUGH 10Z. WHILE A FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE...
WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

TSTMS WERE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND INCREASING IN INTENSITY ALONG
THE NW KS/SW NEB BORDER REGION EARLY TODAY. ACTIVITY WAS INITIATING 
ALONG/NORTH OF 850MB WARM FRONT WHERE STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTENING WERE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAPPING INVERSION IN THE
850-700MB LAYER. THIS PROCESS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ENEWD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS FROM SSELY TO SSWLY. 

STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 850MB DEW POINTS AROUND 10C WERE RESULTING IN
MLCAPE OF UP TO 1000 J/KG FEEDING INTO THE CONVECTION WHICH WILL
SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE SRN EDGE OF 30-35
KT WLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL FURTHER ENHANCE/SUSTAIN A FEW OF THE
UPDRAFTS AND PROMOTE THE PRODUCTION OF LARGE HAIL. GIVEN THE PRIMARY
THREAT OF HAIL...AND THE NARROW CORRIDOR OF EXPECTED TSTM
COVERAGE...NO WATCH IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.


..CARBIN.. 04/29/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...

39459826 39560081 39950182 40970151 41139925 41239802
41029728 39849639

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 28, 7:10 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allen, Anderson, Bourbon, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 12 more	2 hr
Apr 28, 11:50 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cheyenne, Rawlins	2 hr
Apr 29, 2:19 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cloud, Ellis, Ellsworth, Graham, Jewell, Lincoln and 11 more	116 min
Apr 29, 3:40 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Clay, Cloud, Decatur, Dickinson, Ellis, Ellsworth and 19 more	5 hr
Apr 29, 4:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Cheyenne, Logan, Rawlins, Scott, Sherman, Thomas and 1 more	6 hr
Apr 29, 5:52 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clay, Cloud, Decatur, Dickinson, Ellis, Ellsworth and 19 more	53 min
Apr 29, 6:16 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cheyenne, Logan, Rawlins, Scott, Sherman, Thomas and 2 more	119 min
Apr 29, 3:47 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Kimball	118 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.