Mesoscale Discussion 47

Issued

Feb 3, 2003, 6:33 PM EST (23:33 UTC)

Expired

Feb 4, 2003, 2:30 AM EST

In force

8 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 143 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

223 
ACUS11 KWNS 032333
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032333 
MIZ000-040730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0047
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0533 PM CST MON FEB 03 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI AND THE ERN/CENTRAL U.P OF MI

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 032333Z - 040730Z

HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM NERN WI INTO FAR NRN LOWER MI
AND THE CENTRAL/ERN U.P OF MI BETWEEN 04/00Z AND 04/03Z. HOURLY
ACCUMULATIONS RATES AROUND 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A 2-4 HOUR
PERIOD OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN U.P OF MI AND FAR NRN LOWER MI
BETWEEN 04/03Z AND 04/08Z. FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF
NRN LOWER MI...A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGH 04/01Z. HOURLY ACCUMULATION RATES AROUND 0.05
IN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD.



LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FROM
ECENTRAL WI EWD INTO WCENTRAL MI. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
FROM 7-7.5 DEG C/KM IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WAS SUPPORTING THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF
CURRENT DEFORMATION ZONE OVER CENTRAL/SWRN WI AND WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DEFORMATION ZONE INTO THE
CENTRAL/ERN U.P OF MI AND FAR NRN LOWER MI DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE
500-700 MB LAYER WILL SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW. FARTHER SOUTH...THE
03/23Z SURFACE OBS INDICATED THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE EXTENDING
FROM 30 N OF MKG TO 30 N OF FNT. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WAA AND
STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS/SFC LOW TRACK SHOULD ALLOW FOR THIS
ISOTHERM TO MOVE NWD TO A POSITION FROM LDM TO OSC BY 04/03Z.
FCST SOUNDINGS AND P-TYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST A MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF AN AXIS FROM LDM TO PLN.
THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER NERN LOWER MI
TO THE NORTH OF SAGINAW BAY THROUGH 04/02Z IN THE REGION OF
STRONGEST WAA/PRESSURE FALLS...WHERE LOCALLY UP TO 0.15 INCH OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL BEFORE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL CAA AIDS IN A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW OVER THIS AREA.

..CROSBIE.. 02/03/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

46478716 45788828 44778766 44098648 44628317 46608419

Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.