Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003
Mesoscale Discussion 45
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 3, 2003, 2:21 PM CST for 6 states. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 3, 2003, 2:21 PM CST (20:21 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 3, 2003, 5:15 PM CST
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 93 counties
Arkansas County, AR, Ashley County, AR, Bradley County, AR, Calhoun County, AR, Chicot County, AR, Clark County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Columbia County, AR, Conway County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Desha County, AR, Drew County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Garland County, AR, Grant County, AR, Greene County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Independence County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Lee County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Miller County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Nevada County, AR, Ouachita County, AR, Perry County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Saline County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Stone County, AR, Union County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Bienville Parish, LA, Bossier Parish, LA, Caddo Parish, LA, Caldwell Parish, LA, Claiborne Parish, LA, De Soto Parish, LA, East Carroll Parish, LA, Franklin Parish, LA, Jackson Parish, LA, Lincoln Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Morehouse Parish, LA, Ouachita Parish, LA, Red River Parish, LA, Richland Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, Union Parish, LA, Webster Parish, LA, West Carroll Parish, LA, Winn Parish, LA, Dunklin County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Bolivar County, MS, Coahoma County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Panola County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Washington County, MS, Fayette County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Tipton County, TN, Harrison County, TX, Marion County, TX, Panola County, TX, Rusk County, TX, Shelby County, TX
The radar
The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 116 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 252 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 551 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 45 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 332 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 330 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
765 ACUS11 KWNS 032021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032021 TXZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-032315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0045 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0221 PM CST MON FEB 03 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...NE TX...CNTRL/SRN AR...NRN LA...WRN MS..WRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032021Z - 032315Z THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AR AND NORTHERN LA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED CELLS ALONG LINE COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM WEST OF LIT SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST TX. THIS IS ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPING EASTWARD ACROSS REGION. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AHEAD OF FRONT HAVE LIMITED DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER... SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE LOW 60S AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH ARE RESULTING IN MUCAPE VALUES OF 300-900 J/KG. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD INCREASE OVER THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... LIKELY INCREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN SHORT BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES THAT MIGHT DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...ONLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST. CONVECTION IN THIS REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR INTENSIFICATION AND POSSIBLE WW. ..HART.. 02/03/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... 33869385 35899229 36248970 34958910 31909129 31729413 31949496
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 12:28 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baxter, Clay, Fulton, Greene, Izard, Lawrence and 5 more | 3 hr |
| Feb 3, 9:38 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrew, Atchison, Holt, Nodaway, Worth | 5 hr |
| Feb 3, 2:59 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bollinger, Cape Girardeau, Madison, Mississippi, Perry, Sainte Genevieve and 4 more | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.