Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 43

February 3, 200311 counties in Arkansas; 20 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 3, 2003, 12:28 PM CST for 11 counties in Arkansas; 20 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 3, 2003, 12:28 PM CST (18:28 UTC)
Expired: Feb 3, 2003, 3:30 PM CST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 31 counties

Baxter County, AR, Clay County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Greene County, AR, Izard County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Marion County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Stone County, AR, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Carter County, MO, Crawford County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Howell County, MO, Iron County, MO, Madison County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Texas County, MO, Washington County, MO, Wayne County, MO

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 163 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 192 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 15 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -412 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 821 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 250 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 241 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

318 
ACUS11 KWNS 031829
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031828 
ARZ000-MOZ000-032130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0043
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CST MON FEB 03 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...NRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 031828Z - 032130Z

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHERN MO AND NORTHERN AR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.  WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.



LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW FINE LINE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MO. 
THIS ACTIVITY IS IN REGION OF SCATTERED BREAKS IN CLOUDS...AND
WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 60S.  CURRENT
OA FIELDS SUGGEST MUCAPE OF 200-500 J/KG.  VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN THIS REGION ARE VERY STRONG...WITH LOCAL VWP
DATA INDICATING 1KM SHEAR VALUES OVER 30 KNOTS AND 500MB WINDS OF
60-70 KNOTS.  RUC/ETA MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG
MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT UPDRAFT
INTENSITY AND HAIL THREAT.  HOWEVER...FRONTAL FORCING AND
STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SOME THREAT OF GUSTY/BRIEFLY
DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGER CELLS ALONG LINE.	ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO COOLER/MORE STABLE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN IL.



..HART.. 02/03/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

36969261 38189135 38059011 36708977 35769099 35729283
36359284

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 3, 2:21 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Clark and 41 more	3 hr
Feb 3, 9:38 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Andrew, Atchison, Holt, Nodaway, Worth	5 hr
Feb 3, 2:59 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bollinger, Cape Girardeau, Madison, Mississippi, Perry, Sainte Genevieve and 4 more	3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.