Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 39

February 2, 200316 counties in Colorado; Cheyenne County, Kansas; 8 counties in Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 2, 2003, 5:41 PM MST for 16 counties in Colorado; Cheyenne County, Kansas; 8 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 2, 2003, 5:41 PM MST (00:41 UTC)
Expired
Feb 3, 2003, 12:45 AM MST
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 25 counties

Adams County, CO, Arapahoe County, CO, Boulder County, CO, Broomfield County, CO, Denver County, CO, Douglas County, CO, Elbert County, CO, Jefferson County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Logan County, CO, Morgan County, CO, Phillips County, CO, Sedgwick County, CO, Washington County, CO, Weld County, CO, Yuma County, CO, Cheyenne County, KS, Chase County, NE, Cheyenne County, NE, Deuel County, NE, Dundy County, NE, Hayes County, NE, Hitchcock County, NE, Keith County, NE, Perkins County, NE

The radar

The Denver radar (KFTG), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 00:00Z, 0.7 hours before the alert went out and 50 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Denver, CO at 00:00Z on 2003-02-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Denver, CO at 00:00Z on 2003-02-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -111 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
569 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
72 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-111 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
157 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

256 
ACUS11 KWNS 030041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030041 
COZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-030745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0039
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CST SUN FEB 02 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL THROUGH NERN CO...SWRN NEB AND EXTREME
NWRN KS

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 030041Z - 030745Z

SNOWFALL RATES LOCALLY UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED FROM E
CNTRL THROUGH NERN CO...SPREADING INTO SWRN NEB LATER THIS
EVENING AND NWRN KS AFTER 06Z.



SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW
IN  SERN NEB...SWWD THROUGH KS TO ANOTHER LOW IN SERN CO. NLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED IN POST FRONTAL REGION.
WELL DEFINED VORT MAX OVER WRN CO WILL CONTINUE EWD THIS EVENING
AND IN THE PROCESS ENHANCE LIFT ALONG MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS NERN CO. VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED IN
UPSLOPE ZONE ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE ACROSS ERN CO. THE 00Z
SOUNDINGS FROM DENVER AND GRAND JUNCTION SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE VORT MAX.
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST ABOVE THE
STABLE SURFACE LAYER AS THIS ZONE OF ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
SPREAD EWD THROUGH CO. THIS SUGGESTS THE SNOWFALL RATES WILL ALSO
LIKELY BE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED.

..DIAL.. 02/03/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

40220524 41310334 41460144 40540060 39270187 38840458
39260562 40160540

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 3, 2:34 AM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEllis, Graham, Jewell, Mitchell, Norton, Osborne and 6 more5 hr
Feb 3, 8:38 AM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Clay, Cloud, Doniphan, Jackson and 8 more5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.