Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 38

February 2, 200323 counties in Minnesota; 5 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 2, 2003, 12:54 PM CST for 23 counties in Minnesota; 5 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 9 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 2, 2003, 12:54 PM CST (18:54 UTC)
Expired: Feb 2, 2003, 10:00 PM CST
In force: 9 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 28 counties

Anoka County, MN, Brown County, MN, Carver County, MN, Chippewa County, MN, Chisago County, MN, Dakota County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Isanti County, MN, Kandiyohi County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Ramsey County, MN, Redwood County, MN, Renville County, MN, Scott County, MN, Sherburne County, MN, Sibley County, MN, Stearns County, MN, Swift County, MN, Washington County, MN, Wright County, MN, Yellow Medicine County, MN, Barron County, WI, Chippewa County, WI, Dunn County, WI, Polk County, WI, Saint Croix County, WI

The radar

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 37 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 6.9 hours before the alert went out and 37 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 502 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 75 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 57 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 131 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

441 
ACUS11 KWNS 021854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021854 
MNZ000-WIZ000-030400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0038
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 PM CST SUN FEB 02 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MN/EXTREME NWRN WI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 021854Z - 030400Z

...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL MN/NW WI DURING THE EVENING...



MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A STRONG MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WHILE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. 12Z ETA MODEL IS
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WITH BOTH THE
FORCING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND BASED ON CURRENT
ANALYSIS...THIS SOLUTION APPEARS REASONABLE.  



THE 700MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 03/00Z ACROSS ERN NE/SRN
SD...WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION SETTING UP ACROSS CNTRL MN.
700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ERN
DAKOTAS/CNTRL MN BY 03/0000Z AND NRN WI BY 03/0600Z. TEMPERATURES
IN CNTRL/SRN MN AND WRN WI WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF
THIS AFTN WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF RAIN/FZRA AND SLEET
INITIALLY. AS LIFT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 850-500MB LAYER WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C AND
-16C BY 03/0000Z WHICH WILL SUPPORT DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH.  GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...A NARROW BAND OF
HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT WITH RATES OF AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR BY
MID TO LATE EVENING.



..TAYLOR/RACY.. 02/02/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

45119109 44489365 44079544 44889603 45349589 45469520
45759358 45859248 45749119

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 2, 4:42 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Blue Earth, Brown, Chippewa, Cottonwood, Lac qui Parle, Lincoln and 7 more	5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.