Mesoscale Discussion 37

Issued

Feb 2, 2003, 4:42 AM CST (10:42 UTC)

Expired

Feb 2, 2003, 9:45 AM CST

In force

5 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 131 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

576 
ACUS11 KWNS 021043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021042 
WYZ000-SDZ000-MNZ000-021545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0037
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0442 AM CST SUN FEB 02 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN WY...SD...AND SWRN MN

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 021042Z - 021545Z

FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NERN/ERN SD AND SWRN MN IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH 02/18Z.
MEANWHILE...MODERATE SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THE MTNS OF CENTRAL WY
EWD INTO THE BLACK HILLS. BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN WY IN
FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AREAS IN THE CENTRAL MTNS.



A STRONG MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE GREAT
BASIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH CENTRAL/NERN WY AND ARCING EWD
ACROSS N-CENTRAL SD AND SWRN MN WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ASCENT
AND PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NEXT 6-9
HOURS. A CONTINUATION OF A 50-70NM WIDE BAND OF MIXED WINTER
PRECIPITATION...OWING TO FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN GENERALLY
CONFLUENT 700MB FLOW ACROSS SD...SWRN MN...IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY SWD...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW SWD PROPAGATION OF
BANDED PRECIPITATION AREA THROUGH 18Z. FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING IN
NERN SD AT 02/10Z AND LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO SWRN MN DURING THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THIS AREA TOWARD
18Z AS MODEST LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION OCCURS COOLING THE
LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL PROFILE BELOW 0C. FURTHER WEST...FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS FAR WRN SD AND CENTRAL WY BY
LARGE-SCALE DIFFLUENT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EVIDENT IN IR
IMAGERY SPREADING NEWD ACROSS SWRN/CENTRAL WY AT 10Z.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IN THESE AREAS SHOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT
SNOW ACROSS WRN SD AND WY. LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT
BEHIND COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN WY

MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

..BANACOS.. 02/02/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

44129625 43789450 44089378 44609430 45239538 45489679
45559785 45519917 45140214 44810340 43210850 41950760
43900038 43979942

Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Wyoming, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.