Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 31

January 23, 200316 counties in North Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 23, 2003, 6:20 AM EST for 16 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 23, 2003, 6:20 AM EST (11:20 UTC)
Expired: Jan 23, 2003, 10:15 AM EST
In force: 4 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Beaufort County, NC, Carteret County, NC, Craven County, NC, Dare County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Greene County, NC, Hyde County, NC, Jones County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Pender County, NC, Pitt County, NC, Tyrrell County, NC, Washington County, NC, Wayne County, NC

The radar

The Morehead City radar (KMHX), 68 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 00:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 68 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1513 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 69 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -117 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -52 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

951 
ACUS11 KWNS 231120
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231120 
NCZ000-231515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0031
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 AM CST THU JAN 23 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 231120Z - 231515Z

SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NC COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING AS STRONG
AND PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION.



STRONGER UPWARD MOTION SPREADING EWD FROM THE WRN CAROLINAS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE INCREASING PRECIPITATION RATES AS LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS BECOMES SATURATED THIS MORNING. POWERFUL AND INTENSIFYING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN DRAMATIC 500MB HEIGHT FALLS
EXCEEDING 200M/12-HOURS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OVER ERN NC.
RESULTING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL FOCUS ALONG STRONG COASTAL
BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY ANALYZED ABOUT 50NM EAST OF THE SC/NC
COASTLINE. ALTHOUGH UPPER TROUGH AND SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY EAST OF THE REGION LATER TODAY...THE MAGNITUDE OF
DEEP CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO ATLANTIC OCEAN
MOISTURE SOURCE SHOULD SUPPORT RELATIVELY BRIEF /3-6 HOUR/ BURST
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH GREATEST RATES/AMOUNTS LIKELY
TO OCCUR OVER THE OUTER BANKS BASED ON LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL
DATA.

..CARBIN.. 01/23/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

36157588 35407541 34727655 34377816 35407810

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jan 23, 2:16 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alexander, Burke, Cabarrus, Caldwell, Catawba, Cleveland and 18 more	5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.