Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 30

January 23, 200324 counties in North Carolina; 5 counties in South Carolina; 5 counties in Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 23, 2003, 2:16 AM EST for 24 counties in North Carolina; 5 counties in South Carolina; 5 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 23, 2003, 2:16 AM EST (07:16 UTC)
Expired: Jan 23, 2003, 7:15 AM EST
In force: 5 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 34 counties

Alexander County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Davie County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Surry County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Anderson County, SC, Cherokee County, SC, Greenville County, SC, Pickens County, SC, Spartanburg County, SC, City of Martinsville, VA, Floyd County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Henry County, VA, Patrick County, VA

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 139 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 119 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1680 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 86 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 34 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 84 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

541 
ACUS11 KWNS 230717
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230716 
SCZ000-NCZ000-VAZ000-231215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0030
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 AM CST THU JAN 23 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL CAROLINAS...SWRN VA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 230716Z - 231215Z

SNOWFALL RATES MAY APPROACH 1 INCH PER HOUR ALONG AND WEST OF A
AND-CLT-RDU OVER THE NEXT 4-5 HOURS. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS EAST
OF THIS LINE MAY INITIALLY LIMIT HEAVIER SNOWFALL UNTIL COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS AND INFLUX OF GREATER MOISTURE DEVELOPS ACROSS ERN
AREAS BEYOND 09Z.



RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY WERE INDICATING AN EXPANDING
BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS
EARLY TODAY. STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION WAS OCCURRING IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF 150-175KT 300MB JET
DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. INTENSIFYING MIDLEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WAS OCCURRING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE...AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO TEND TO LIMIT THE
DURATION OF THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL THROUGH 09Z. HOWEVER...RUC
AND ETA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SNOWFALL RATES FROM THE
APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS TO THE PIEDMONT WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
1/2 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH 09Z.

..CARBIN.. 01/23/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

36078168 37437960 36367942 35598010 34218263 34848308

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jan 23, 6:20 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Beaufort, Carteret, Craven, Dare, Duplin, Greene and 10 more	4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.