Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 2467

October 28, 200317 counties in Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 28, 2003, 6:24 PM EST for 17 counties in Florida. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 28, 2003, 6:24 PM EST (23:24 UTC)
Expired: Oct 28, 2003, 8:30 PM EST
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Alachua County, FL, Baker County, FL, Bradford County, FL, Citrus County, FL, Clay County, FL, Duval County, FL, Flagler County, FL, Gilchrist County, FL, Hernando County, FL, Levy County, FL, Marion County, FL, Nassau County, FL, Pasco County, FL, Putnam County, FL, Saint Johns County, FL, Sumter County, FL, Union County, FL

The radar

The Jacksonville radar (KJAX), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Jacksonville, FL (KJAX), launched 12:00Z, 11.4 hours before the alert went out and 106 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 696 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 138 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 188 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

571 
ACUS11 KWNS 282325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282324 
FLZ000-GAZ000-290130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2467
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CST TUE OCT 28 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 942...

VALID 282324Z - 290130Z

RADAR TRENDS SHOW STORMS INTENSIFYING OFF THE W FL COAST NW OF TAMPA
AND WILL TRAVERSE THE NRN FL PENINSULA NEXT FEW HOURS.THREAT WILL
EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND ASSOCIATED WITH BOWING SEGMENTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER NRN
FL SWWD INTO THE ERN GULF. A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST OVER
NRN FL ANOTHER FEW HOURS...AND MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INCREASE AS 60
KT MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FOR SUPERCELLS IN THE MOIST BUT MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. THE
STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF THE NW FL COAST ALONG AND JUST E OF
FRONT MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS OR
SUPERCELLS AS THEY DEVELOP ENEWD. THREAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z AFTER WHICH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NWD AWAY
FROM NRN FL.

..DIAL.. 10/28/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

29108330 29958272 30728189 30928132 30178083 29438110
28848176 28248251

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 28, 10:52 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alachua, Baker, Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Dixie and 14 more	53 min
Oct 28, 11:20 AM EST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Alachua, Baker, Bradford, Citrus, Clay, Columbia and 13 more	6 hr
Oct 28, 12:24 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alachua, Baker, Bradford, Citrus, Clay, Columbia and 13 more	66 min
Oct 28, 3:05 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alachua, Baker, Bradford, Citrus, Clay, Columbia and 13 more	55 min
Oct 28, 3:55 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baker, Columbia, Dixie, Gilchrist, Lafayette, Nassau and 2 more	65 min
Oct 28, 4:30 PM EST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Alachua, Baker, Bradford, Citrus, Clay, Dixie and 12 more	6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.