Alert archive / Tennessee / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 2017

July 29, 20034 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 29, 2003, 5:38 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 29, 2003, 5:38 PM CDT (22:38 UTC)
Expired: Jul 29, 2003, 7:45 PM CDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 21 counties

Mississippi County, AR, Dunklin County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Alcorn County, MS, Benton County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Prentiss County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tishomingo County, MS, Chester County, TN, Crockett County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Hardin County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Madison County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Tipton County, TN, Wayne County, TN

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 74 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 587 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -125 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1756 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 9 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 0 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 14 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

307 
ACUS11 KWNS 292239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292238 
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-300045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0538 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 292238Z - 300045Z

ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION ORGANIZING
ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MTNS. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE AREA...BUT THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT A SEVERE
WATCH.

LATEST RADAR/SAT IMAGERY SUGGEST CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE
OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND MTNS OF FAR SERN AZ. A WELL DEVELOPED LINE
HAS FORMED OVER FAR ERN PIMA/SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...WITH RECENT
STRONG WIND GUST AT FORT HUACHUCA. SUFFICIENTLY STRONG COLD POOL
APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED WITH THIS LINE. DESPITE 20-25 KT MID LEVEL
WINDS...THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...AS 18Z TUS SOUNDING INDICATED RELATIVELY
MOIST LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING TO THE
NORTH/WEST OF THE TUS AREA SUGGESTS THE EXISTENCE OF BETTER LOW-MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH MAY AID IN A GREATER DAMAGING WIND THREAT IN
THIS AREA.

..CROSBIE.. 07/29/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...

34648941 35379043 36489032 35148745 34548833

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 28, 10:12 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Mississippi	3 hr
Jul 29, 10:42 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Chicot, Desha, Drew	2 hr
Jul 29, 3:36 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clark, Columbia, Dallas, Garland, Grant, Hempstead and 13 more	2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.